UK Economics Update Can Mr Osborne declare victory? While the UK economy may have withstood the fiscal consolidation rather better than the IMF and other critics anticipated, there are reasons why George Osborne may want to think twice before declaring... 10th April 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Rate hikes remain distant given inflation outlook With inflation falling and plenty of slack still left in the labour market, today’s no-change decision by the MPC is likely to have been unanimous again. And with the UK set for a favourable period of... 10th April 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar 14.) February’s money and lending figures provide further reassurance that the economic recovery has maintained its strong pace this year and is not being powered by a surge in credit. 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Mar.) Although overall household borrowing rose in February, the sharp fall in mortgage approvals suggests that activity in the housing market may be stabilising. Accordingly, the housing recovery does not... 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Recovery still fuelled by lower saving The latest data on the state of households’ finances confirmed our fears that the recovery in spending over recent quarters has been driven largely by consumers saving less. But the consumer recovery... 28th March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Mind the (spuriously precise) gap The fact that members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) are advancing personal estimates of the output gap expressed to the nearest 0.1% suggests that policymakers may be putting too much... 24th March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Fiscal squeeze will intensify despite Budget giveaway The meagre giveaway to consumers in yesterday’s Budget did little to change the reality that fiscal policy will impart a moderate squeeze on households’ incomes over the next few years. Indeed, the... 20th March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Labour Market Monitor (Mar.) Wednesday’s labour market figures look set to show that the unemployment rate resumed its downward trend at the start of 2014. But they also seem likely to confirm that there is still plenty of spare... 17th March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update A sixth year of record low rates lies ahead The MPC’s decision to leave interest rates on hold, marking five years since they reached their record low, is likely to be repeated many more times. With recent news suggesting the MPC’s estimate of... 6th March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update UK has only limited exposure to Ukraine crisis The UK economy should not feel any major adverse effects from the crisis in Ukraine since trade and financial exposures to it and Russia are small. The biggest threat is from higher commodity prices... 4th March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb. 14) January’s slowing of growth in the broad money supply and lending confirms that the recovery is neither generating inflation nor being fuelled by an unsustainable pick-up in borrowing. 3rd March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Jan.) Household borrowing fell back a touch in January, providing further evidence that the recovery is not being fuelled by a consumer borrowing binge. Indeed, credit is still well below pre-crisis levels... 3rd March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Labour Market Monitor (Feb.) Wednesday’s labour market figures seem likely to indicate that there is still considerable slack in the economy which will keep inflationary pressures subdued for some time to come. Indeed, by our... 17th February 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC on hold for a long time, whatever the new guidance The MPC’s decision to leave policy on hold today was almost certainly the last to be taken under the unemployment-focused forward guidance adopted just six months ago. But whatever replaces it... 6th February 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) The broad money supply continues to grow at a rate which should reassure those fearing that the economic recovery might be building up steam too rapidly. Indeed, with bank lending remaining subdued... 30th January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Dec.) Household borrowing reached its highest level since July 2008 in December. But while credit conditions appear to be easing, rising borrowing costs and possible intervention by the Bank of England... 30th January 2014 · 1 min read
