UK Economics Update Do consumers get the MPC's 'mood music'? Recent rises in inflation and interest rate expectations might contradict claims by Mark Carney that households understand the MPC’s forward guidance. But we are not too concerned about the former at... 6th December 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Autumn Statement provides modest gain to consumers With sizeable improvements in the economic and fiscal forecasts, December’s Autumn Statement gave the Chancellor leeway to announce measures which will provide some modest support to consumers’... 6th December 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC's inaction speaks louder than words While the MPC’s communications have arguably become a little less clear over the last month or two, Committee members seem united in the fundamental belief that inflation pressures will remain subdued... 5th December 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update More 'creative destruction' is good news for productivity New data on UK business births and deaths show that both are on the rise. With productivity growth driven largely by the impact of firms entering and exiting industries, evidence of more ‘creative... 3rd December 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) The latest broad money supply figures support signs that the economic recovery has remained strong in the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, bank lending has begun to show some tentative signs of improvement... 29th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Oct.) Talk of a recovery fuelled by lending growth continues to be overdone. Accordingly, while the willingness of the Bank of England to curb lending may hold back any strong revival in credit, this need... 29th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Bank of England takes action to cool housing market Alongside the release of its Financial Stability Report, the Bank of England has unveiled new measures to blunt the incentives for banks to make new mortgage loans. While these initiatives may do... 28th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Consumer recovery continues but foundations remain fragile Growth in household spending continues to drive the economic recovery. In the near-term, rising house prices and consumer credit should support further expansion. But a solid foundation of rising real... 27th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Are small retailers gaining at the expense of large ones? Although small retailers suffered much more than large ones during the economy’s post-2008 weakness, more recently, small retailers have started to outperform their larger competitors. But we doubt... 26th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Prospects bright for at least part of the household goods sector The recovery in the housing market has so far had little impact on total sales of household goods. But digging a little deeper, spending on items linked more closely with house purchases has risen... 18th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Action on energy bills could provide modest consumer boost Attention on what has been termed the “cost of living crisis” has fuelled speculation that December’s Autumn Statement will include measures to cut energy bills. And even if funding of the ‘green’... 15th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Underemployment will keep wage pressure subdued Underemployment, where people are in employment but want to work more hours, reached a record high in the first half of 2013. This means that there is more slack in the labour market than the... 12th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Ageing population need not hit workforce growth too hard The ONS’ latest population projections suggest that the UK’s population will age even more rapidly than previously expected. But we doubt this will feed into a one-for-one fall in workforce growth and... 8th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Fall in gilt yields not a sign forward guidance is working The MPC should think twice before concluding that the fall in interest rate expectations and gilt yields in recent months is a sign that markets are coming around to its views on the economic outlook... 7th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC probably united ahead of Inflation Report With the economic recovery proceeding more quickly than the MPC expected, but little pressure on forward guidance’s knockouts, today’s decision to leave policy unchanged was probably a unanimous one... 7th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Could tourism dampen the consumer recovery? Some of the recent recovery in spending by UK households has been accounted for by spending abroad. So while the official household spending figures show growth, data for domestic spending are less... 30th October 2013 · 1 min read
