Global Economics Update What next after Credit Suisse? While the Credit Suisse rescue might draw a line under that particular institution’s problems, it is clear that confidence in the financial sector overall is still extremely fragile. So regardless of... 20th March 2023 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update Spring Budget 2023 Checklist This checklist helps clients keep track of the key forecasts announced during the Spring Budget at 12.30pm (GMT) on Wednesday 15 th March. Our more detailed preview is here. We will send a Rapid... 14th March 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Mapping economic reforms for the UK The numerous “plans for growth” that have been announced by the Government, the Opposition, and various commentators in recent months vary in their analytical rigour but all miss one crucial point... 9th March 2023 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Update Profit margins another potential threat to inflation outlook A widening in profit margins could mean that inflation is slower to fall back to the Bank of England’s 2.0% target than we expect. That would cause the Bank to raise interest rates even further than... 28th February 2023 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update Have households spent all their pandemic savings? There is mounting evidence that households have exhausted their stock of savings built up during the pandemic. That has supported real spending and cushioned the blow from the fall in real household... 22nd February 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Comparing CE forecasts to the consensus Being ranked by the Sunday Times as the top UK economic forecaster for 2022 is a great accolade and has generated a lot of interest in what we expect to happen next. Our forecasts for 2023 imply a... 20th February 2023 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update Pandemic recovery helped prevent recession The UK avoided a recession last year partly because of more spending by households on restaurants and trains and partly because of more investment by businesses in aircraft, cars and cruise ships... 16th February 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Recession to trigger larger rise in insolvencies than the GFC We think business insolvencies may rise to a record high of around 8,400 per quarter by Q2 2024 and take until at least early 2025 to return to a more “normal” level of just over 4,000 per quarter... 9th February 2023 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update Rates close to their peak, but cuts are far away While raising rates by 50 basis points (bps) today, from 3.50% to 4.00%, the Bank of England implied that rates are very close to their peak. We still think that rates may rise to 4.50%, but perhaps... 2nd February 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update The next phases for interest rates and the BoE’s possible guidance With interest rates nearing a peak, the next two phases of monetary policy will most probably be rates being held at that peak and then being cut. The Bank of England may soon provide some guidance on... 1st February 2023 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Update Monetary policy has lost some of its potency The shift away from floating-rate to fixed-rate mortgages has meant that it was always going to take longer than in past tightening cycles for the rise in interest rates to feed through to the real... 1st February 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Employment has been resilient so far While we expect employment to weaken, it’s happening at a glacial pace. That feeds into our view that once interest rates peak (perhaps at 4.50% up from 3.50% now) they will stay high for all of this... 31st January 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Fixed-rate loans delay and reduce effect of higher rates The shift away from floating-rate to fixed-rate mortgages presents risks as well as benefits. It will protect homeowners who are lucky enough to have a long time remaining on their fixed rate contract... 30th January 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Drag from higher interest rates will soon intensify The recent resilience of the economy to the dual drags of high inflation and higher interest rates doesn’t mean the pain has been avoided. Instead, our analysis suggests that higher interest rates... 16th January 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Shift to a bigger state won’t curtail GDP growth While the shift towards higher taxes and spending after the pandemic appears to be here to stay, there is little to suggest an expanded state would curtail GDP growth. But without supply-side reforms... 10th January 2023 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update Cooling wholesale gas price to aid the economy The recent plunge in wholesale gas prices means that utility prices for households may fall below the government’s price freeze in July. As a result, CPI inflation will be around 0.3 percentage points... 6th January 2023 · 6 mins read
