UK Economics Update Low inflation keeps the MPC on hold While the strength of the housing market may have made for an animated discussion at today’s MPC meeting, the benign inflation outlook suggests that tighter monetary policy is still not a near-term... 8th May 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Apr.) Whilst March’s money and credit data suggested that the housing market recovery may be coming off the boil, there are signs that the consumer recovery is finally feeding through into stronger... 1st May 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is there slack among the self-employed? The sharp rise in self-employment is one reason among many to think that the unemployment rate understates the amount of slack in the labour market and the broader economy. 24th April 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Can Mr Osborne declare victory? While the UK economy may have withstood the fiscal consolidation rather better than the IMF and other critics anticipated, there are reasons why George Osborne may want to think twice before declaring... 10th April 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Rate hikes remain distant given inflation outlook With inflation falling and plenty of slack still left in the labour market, today’s no-change decision by the MPC is likely to have been unanimous again. And with the UK set for a favourable period of... 10th April 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar 14.) February’s money and lending figures provide further reassurance that the economic recovery has maintained its strong pace this year and is not being powered by a surge in credit. 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Mar.) Although overall household borrowing rose in February, the sharp fall in mortgage approvals suggests that activity in the housing market may be stabilising. Accordingly, the housing recovery does not... 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Recovery still fuelled by lower saving The latest data on the state of households’ finances confirmed our fears that the recovery in spending over recent quarters has been driven largely by consumers saving less. But the consumer recovery... 28th March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Mind the (spuriously precise) gap The fact that members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) are advancing personal estimates of the output gap expressed to the nearest 0.1% suggests that policymakers may be putting too much... 24th March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Fiscal squeeze will intensify despite Budget giveaway The meagre giveaway to consumers in yesterday’s Budget did little to change the reality that fiscal policy will impart a moderate squeeze on households’ incomes over the next few years. Indeed, the... 20th March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Labour Market Monitor (Mar.) Wednesday’s labour market figures look set to show that the unemployment rate resumed its downward trend at the start of 2014. But they also seem likely to confirm that there is still plenty of spare... 17th March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update A sixth year of record low rates lies ahead The MPC’s decision to leave interest rates on hold, marking five years since they reached their record low, is likely to be repeated many more times. With recent news suggesting the MPC’s estimate of... 6th March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update UK has only limited exposure to Ukraine crisis The UK economy should not feel any major adverse effects from the crisis in Ukraine since trade and financial exposures to it and Russia are small. The biggest threat is from higher commodity prices... 4th March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb. 14) January’s slowing of growth in the broad money supply and lending confirms that the recovery is neither generating inflation nor being fuelled by an unsustainable pick-up in borrowing. 3rd March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Jan.) Household borrowing fell back a touch in January, providing further evidence that the recovery is not being fuelled by a consumer borrowing binge. Indeed, credit is still well below pre-crisis levels... 3rd March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Labour Market Monitor (Feb.) Wednesday’s labour market figures seem likely to indicate that there is still considerable slack in the economy which will keep inflationary pressures subdued for some time to come. Indeed, by our... 17th February 2014 · 1 min read
