UK Economics Update Has the Great Moderation returned? Since early 2013, the UK has enjoyed a remarkable period of steady growth reminiscent of the ‘Great Moderation’ in the 1990s and early 2000s. While we doubt GDP growth will remain quite so stable in... 4th September 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Aug.) July’s household borrowing figures provided further signs that the consumer recoveryhas not been driven by an unsustainable credit binge. Meanwhile, mortgage lendinglooks set to recover gradually as... 1st September 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) Continued moderate growth in broad money and bank lending indicates that there is still no pressingneed for the Monetary Policy Committee to raise interest rates quickly over the next year or so. 1st September 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Low inflation should limit pace of rate hikes The continued strength of the UK’s recovery suggests that today’s vote to keep Bank Rate at 0.5% maynot have been unanimous and that a rate hike this year cannot be ruled out. Even so, the outlook... 7th August 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul) The latest money and credit figures show that bank lending is finally staging a gradual recovery. Butwith broad money growth still fairly subdued and bank lending recovering from a low level, the... 29th July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Jul.) June’s household borrowing figures supported the view that the recent slowdown inhousing market activity is largely due to temporary disruptions caused by theintroduction of the Mortgage Market Review... 29th July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Has the ‘staycation’ boost run its course? The pound’s depreciation and the UK’s recession which caused many Brits to forgo overseas tripssupported the UK tourism industry during the downturn. But now, sterling’s rise and the strongerrecovery... 28th July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is retailers’ pricing power starting to strengthen? The sharp rise in core inflation in June reported by today’s official consumer prices figures contrastswith timelier survey evidence suggesting that discounting on the high street has been... 15th July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Are weak tax receipts a sign the recovery is flagging? The public finances, particularly tax receipts, have made a disappointing start to this fiscal year. However, recent fiscal data have been distorted by several temporary factors, suggesting that they... 10th July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Easing inflation bolsters case for MPC inaction Although the economic recovery appears to be heading into the second half of this year with plenty of momentum, the continued weakening of inflationary pressures suggests that today’s decision by the... 10th July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Jun. 14) May’s money and credit figures provided some more signs that the housing market recovery has lost some steam. Meanwhile, although the consumer recovery has continued apace, it has not lead to an... 30th June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Disposable income still falling, but outlook remains bright The latest data on the state of households’ finances revealed another disappointing fall in disposable income. But households’ balance sheets remain fairly healthy overall, and we continue to expect... 27th June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will the World Cup kick off a spending spree? With replica shirts, curved televisions and crates of beer all heavily advertised, the World Cup is clearly an important event for many retailers. But while this summer’s football extravaganza is... 10th June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Still no pressing need to tighten While the strength of the economic recovery may have pushed one or two MPC members closer to voting to raise interest rates at today’s meeting, we still think that the benign inflation outlook and a... 5th June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May 14) Although the latest figures showed further signs of subdued growth in broad money and particularly bank lending, we doubt that this is a sign the economic recovery will lose steam soon. Indeed, it... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (May) April’s money and credit figures suggest that new mortgage rules have stifled the recovery in housing market activity. But with real incomes rising and confidence strengthening, a gradual recovery in... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
