UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Oct.) September’s household borrowing figures confirmed that new mortgage rules and cooling demand have continued to weigh on mortgage approvals. However, we doubt that this downward trend will persist for... 29th October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Bank of England’s stress tests may prove tougher to pass While it is encouraging that all four of the major UK banks passed the European Banking Authority’s stress tests, the narrow margin by which some did so raises concerns that the Bank of England’s more... 27th October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Could the economy still propel the Tories to victory? While the economy’s recent revival has so far failed to deliver the Conservative party a sustained lead in the opinion polls, there are reasons to think that this could change before the general... 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Lower commodity prices to bolster consumer recovery Lower oil and food prices should provide a timely boost to consumer spending at a time when employment growth has faded and financial asset prices are falling. 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will the euro-zone drag the UK into the doldrums? Concerns that the euro-zone’s faltering recovery will drag the UK’s own into the doldrums appear somewhat overblown. Past experience shows that the UK economy has been able to outperform the euro-zone... 13th October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Low inflation outlook strengthens case for MPC caution With inflation easing, the housing market cooling and the euro-zone’s recovery fading, the majority of MPC members voting to keep Bank Rate on hold is unlikely to have been whittled down at this month... 9th October 2014 · 1 min read
BoE Watch No need to begin to “normalise” yet With both current and pipeline price pressures easing, the housing market cooling further and the international environment souring over the last month, it seems unlikely that any other MPC members... 2nd October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Major revisions don’t alter bigger consumer picture much Revisions have left the recovery in household spending since 2009 looking a little less strong thanpreviously thought. Nonetheless, recent spending growth remains robust by past standards and... 30th September 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Sep.) August’s household borrowing figures provided further evidence that the recovery isnot being driven by an unsustainable credit binge. And while mortgage lending shouldpick up as the economic backdrop... 29th September 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) The continued weakness of growth in broad money and bank lending provides more evidence that the low level of interest rates is not causing the economy to overheat. 29th September 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Don’t fear the zombies Some argue that interest rates should be raised swiftly to purge so-called “zombie” firms with low productivity. But in reality, there are few zombies and their productivity will rise as demand picks... 23rd September 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Minimum wage pledges unlikely to benefit households much With real wages still falling, proposals to raise the national minimum wage (NMW) look set to play a key role in political parties’ general election campaigns. But given the likely adverse effects on... 22nd September 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Scottish ‘No’ vote does not lift cloud of political uncertainty The near-term outlook for the economy on both sides of the Scottish border has brightened following Scotland’s decision to remain part of the UK. But despite the ‘No’ vote, the UK economy will... 19th September 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Irish lessons for an independent Scotland There is much that the Scots could learn from their Celtic neighbours. Irish independence is a story ofeventual, not immediate success. It took nearly 80 years for Irish per capita income to catch up... 12th September 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Internet hasn’t killed the high street store While retailers still face an uphill battle to attract consumers back from online shopping, recent signs suggest that shoppers may be gradually heading back into town. Retailers also seem likely to... 10th September 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC hawks likely to remain in a minority this year The recent weakness of inflation and wages alongside the cooling of the housing market suggests that the number of MPC members voting to keep interest rates on hold at today’s meeting is unlikely to... 4th September 2014 · 1 min read
