UK Economics Update Rising interest bill may prevent easing of austerity plans The colossal downward revision to the OBR’s forecast for interest payments in the Autumn Statement highlighted that the amount of austerity needed to attain a budget surplus is very sensitive to... 12th December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC reforms unlikely to enhance effectiveness of policy While the reforms announced today to the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC’s) practices will improve the transparency of monetary policy, there is a risk that the potency of policy is undermined by the... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Autumn Statement unlikely to transform consumer recovery The measures announced in the Autumn Statement should provide a slight boost to consumers’ incomes next year. However, the size of the giveaway is very small. Accordingly, the onus remains on growth... 4th December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update The OBR’s pessimism on the economy may not be justified The independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) presented the Chancellor with a fairly gloomy set of economic forecasts in the Autumn Statement. Whilst there are clearly a number of obstacles... 4th December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Wage growth remains pivotal to timing of MPC rate rise Low inflation is likely to have meant that the MPC’s decision to keep Bank Rate at 0.5% this month was straightforward. And while signs that the recovery is maintaining its pace and pay growth is... 4th December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update UK Autumn Statement Checklist This checklist is intended to help clients keep track of the key measures and numbers announced during the Chancellor’s Autumn Statement at 12.30pm and to provide some instant context. Our more... 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will lower oil prices turbocharge the economic recovery? Whilst the recent fall in oil prices seems unlikely to transform the pace of the UK’s economic recovery, it should provide a timely prop at a time when other sources of support appear to be fading. 2nd December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) While recent very slow growth in broad money and bank lending is not as alarming as it may initially seem, it should bolster the consensus view on the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) that it is still... 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Nov.) October’s household borrowing figures confirmed that the sharp slowdown in housing demand has continued to weigh on mortgage approvals. However, we still think that the current weak patch in mortgage... 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will the recovery slow when the fiscal squeeze resumes? The recovery’s acceleration just as the pace of fiscal consolidation eased last year could suggest that GDP growth will slow sharply when the fiscal squeeze re-intensifies after the general election... 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Are real wages rising faster than the official figures suggest? The latest figures showing that annual growth in average earnings has only just begun to exceed inflation appear to understate the extent to which living standards are improving for most people. 12th November 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Consumer recovery not dependent on PPI payments The former Chancellor, Alistair Darling, recently suggested that PPI payments may be behind the strength of the consumer recovery. But the reality is that they have only provided a meagre boost to... 6th November 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Case for rock-bottom rates remains strong for now With inflation easing and uncertainty about the economic outlook growing, the MPC’s decision to keep Bank Rate at 0.5% looks set to be repeated for a few more months. And while the MPC will not wait... 6th November 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update New leverage rules should not impede recovery in lending While the additional minimum capital buffers announced by the Financial Policy Committee (FPC) this afternoon will require some banks to raise more capital over the coming years, they do not appear to... 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Case for inaction remains robust The current weakness of domestic price pressures and the euro-zone’s continued malaise suggest that the MPC is likely to keep Bank Rate on hold for a few more months. But the Committee is unlikely to... 30th October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) The latest monetary indicators provided further evidence to suggest that there is no pressing need for the Monetary Policy Committee to start to raise interest rates yet. 29th October 2014 · 1 min read
