UK Economics Update MPC waiting to be sure deflation will not linger The MPC’s decision to stand pat today – marking the 6 th anniversary of interest rates at their record low of 0.5% – looks set to repeated over the next few months while inflation hovers near zero... 5th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) The latest money and credit figures indicated that the economic recovery is continuing to progress at a robust pace without leading to the rapid accumulation of debt. 2nd March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Feb.) January’s household borrowing figures added to other evidence suggesting that the recovery in housing market activity is starting to re-gain some momentum. 2nd March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is the FTSE 100 still a bellwether for the UK economy? The FTSE 100’s close above its previous all-time high will no doubt be heralded as another milestone in the UK’s economic recovery. But the reality is that the index has underperformed many other... 24th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC stays focused on deflation risks Presumably today’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged was again unanimous after deflation concerns prompted Martin Weale and Ian McCafferty to drop their call for a rate hike last month. An... 5th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Oil price rebound does not eliminate chance of deflation The recent rebound in the oil price does not mean that the UK will necessarily avoid a spell of deflation, although it does increase the chance that the spell is brief and shallow. 5th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Could QE come back on the agenda? With deflation imminent, QE underway in the euro-zone and sterling rising, a case could be made for the MPC to restart its own asset purchase programme. But recent falls in market interest rates mean... 4th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Downsides of lower oil prices are overstated We think that the risks to the public finances and output in the oil and gas sector from lower oil prices are exaggerated. And while investment in the North Sea might suffer, stronger investment in... 2nd February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) December’s money and credit figures brought some tentative signs that lending flows are finally beginning to strengthen and so are providing some timely support to the economic recovery. 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Jan.) December’s household borrowing figures provided some tentative signs that we havenow reached a turning point in housing market activity. And, given the strongeconomic backdrop, household borrowing... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update A brief period of “good” deflation on its way We now think that a brief period of mild deflation in the UK is more likely than not. However, this should be the “good” type of deflation which will give a boost to the economy. 14th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Oil price plunge won’t distract MPC from underlying picture With the recovery showing signs of frailty and the chances of deflation growing, the MPC is under little immediate pressure to raise interest rates. But since lower oil prices should put the spring... 8th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Dec.) November’s household borrowing figures (released last week) showed that weak housing demand has continued to weigh on mortgage approvals. However, we doubt that this downward trend will persist... 5th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Soft start shouldn’t preclude strong 2015 There is growing evidence that, even before the latest drop in oil prices, the US shale oil revolution had started to weigh on oil producers in Latin America. Oil exports to the US from three of the... 5th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Outlook remains bright for consumer recovery Whilst the latest figures on households’ finances painted a fairly discouraging picture of the third quarter of 2014, we are optimistic that rising real wages will ensure that the consumer recovery... 23rd December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Stress tests suggest stronger recovery in lending lies ahead The Bank of England’s stress tests highlight the progress that banks have made in strengthening their balance sheets over the last couple of years and suggest that credit supply is likely to pick up... 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
