UK Economics Update Why aren’t consumers spending their extra cash? The recent softness of retail sales suggests that consumers are saving their windfall from lower energy prices. However, there are still good reasons to think that the money will end up being spent. 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Rise in gilt yields does not reflect election concerns Although gilt yields have risen over the last few weeks, this seems to have reflected easing fears of deflation, not growing concerns about the outcome of the general election. So with little... 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Post-election negotiations unlikely to redraw fiscal outlook Our Election Preview, published 30th April, contains our detailed analysis on the election. Here we answer questions clients may have about the possible series of events over the coming days and weeks... 6th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Mar.) March’s household borrowing figures showed that consumers’ appetite for credit is increasing. But strong rises in real incomes this year should ensure that a pick-up in credit growth is sustainable. 1st May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Does the economy struggle when governments are weak? GDP growth has been weak during the term of several governments which had only small majorities. But we would not conclude from this that the fragile government that this general election may yield... 24th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update EU referendum uncertainty needn’t derail the recovery The deal which looks likely to be sewn up at this week’s EU Council meeting should pave the way for David Cameron to announce a date for the EU referendum soon and officially launch his campaign to... 22nd April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Election set to have bigger market impact than previous ones Recent UK general elections have barely affected markets and this one has yet to have a material impact too. Nonetheless, we could still see a big movement in asset prices in this election’s wake. 21st April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Fiscal paths not as different as manifestos imply The political parties’ manifestos have confirmed that the scale of the fiscal squeeze could be very different depending on which of them is in power. But there are various factors that will probably... 15th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Deflation Watch: UK could now be in deflation Tuesday’s inflation figures could well show that the UK entered deflation last month. But the fact that this mainly reflects lower energy prices makes it a good thing for the economy and there is no... 10th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC to leave rates on hold for at least another year The MPC left policy unchanged this month against a backdrop of looming deflation. The recent rise in the pound, weakening in the inflation outlook, softer US news and sharper planned government... 9th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Consumer recovery rests on strong foundations The latest figures on households’ finances provided some further encouraging evidence that the consumer recovery rests on solid foundations. With real incomes set to rise robustly this year, and... 1st April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Mar.) February’s household borrowing figures provided further confirmation that strong consumer spending is not the result of a borrowing binge. 31st March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) The latest money and credit figures provided further evidence that the economic recovery is not fuelling an unsustainable pick-up in credit. 31st March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Deflation Watch: Still on track for negative inflation soon Tuesday’s inflation figures are likely to show the UK taking another step further towards deflation. And the recent rise in the pound will put additional downward pressure on inflation further ahead... 20th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Big squeeze still lies ahead after election Whilst there were a few sweeteners for households in this year’s Budget, the boost to households’ incomes in the near term was meagre. Accordingly, it is strong consumer confidence, rising real wages... 19th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update UK Budget Checklist 2015 This checklist is intended to help clients keep track of the important measures and numbers announced during the Budget at 12.30pm and to provide some instant context. For a more detailed look at our... 18th March 2015 · 1 min read
