UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Aug.) Growth in household borrowing strengthened in August. Even so, there is little to suggest that brisk consumer spending has been founded on an unsustainable increase in credit. 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit & the City: Long-run benefits may justify upfront cost A British exit from the EU would probably hurt the City in the short term, but it would not spelldisaster. The City’s competitive advantage is founded on more than just unfettered access to thesingle... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Would the public finances be better off after a Brexit? The UK Government could save about £10bn per year on its contributions to the EU’s budget if it left the EU. But a Brexit would not need to create much economic disruption to offset these savings... 21st September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Would a Brexit cause foreign direct investment to dry up? Whilst a British exit from the EU may cause the UK to lose out on some foreign direct investment (FDI), access to the single market is not the only reason that firms invest in the UK. Accordingly, we... 18th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Are concerns about the National Living Wage overdone? Concerns have been mounting about the impact of the introduction of the National Living Wage (NLW) in April next year, with companies such as Next and Whitbread warning that they will have to put up... 15th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Deflation Watch: “Good” deflation about to return We expect deflation to have returned in August; indeed, inflation is likely to remain below zero for most of the rest of this year. But it is not something to worry about as its main effect will be to... 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Global risks keep rates on hold again Although the MPC kept interest rates unchanged at 0.5% today, it left its options open – saying that recent events had not altered its central view for the UK economy, while conceding an increase in... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Jul.) July’s money and credit figures showed a further rise in lending to households and the housing market picking up pace. Even so, there is little to suggest that the strength in consumer spending has... 1st September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Market turmoil gives MPC another reason to delay rate hike Although the UK has clearly been caught up in the recent meltdown in global financial markets, we doubt that it will knock the economic recovery off course. That said, it provides the more cautious... 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Deflation Watch: Negative inflation will return soon CPI inflation probably held steady at zero in July, but the recent fall in oil prices suggests that the UK is likely to experience another bout of negative inflation before the end of the year... 14th August 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Jun.) June’s money and credit figures showed a further pick-up in lending to households and the housing market recovery regaining some momentum. But there is little to suggest that consumers are embarking... 29th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Can the consumer recovery survive a renewed fiscal squeeze? The Summer Budget confirmed that consumers face an imminent ramping-up of the fiscal squeeze. But there are still reasons to remain optimistic that the recovery in spending won’t be derailed. 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Fiscal tweaks not big enough to prompt MPC hike this year Despite the Chancellor’s decision to smooth the fiscal squeeze in yesterday’s Budget, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is likely to continue to keep interest rates on hold until next year... 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Consumer recovery picks up pace The household spending recovery is doing even better than was previously estimated. Admittedly, spending has recently been driven by falling saving. But it should not be long until the spending... 30th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (May) May’s fairly weak household borrowing figures provided further reassurance that therecovery in household spending is not founded upon an unsustainable pick-up incredit growth and is another reason to... 29th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How much further can unemployment fall? At 5.5%, the unemployment rate is getting close to past estimates of its ‘natural rate’, i.e. the rate at which further falls become incompatible with the inflation target. Indeed, the stronger labour... 24th June 2015 · 1 min read
