UK Economics Update Sterling to keep playing piggy in the middle While monetary policy looks set to start moving in opposite directions in the US and euro-zone very soon, no change looks likely in the UK in the near future. Sterling is therefore likely to be caught... 2nd December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Higher debt interest payments could scupper Osborne’s plans Although the Chancellor is probably still running high from last week’s surprise windfall from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) at the Autumn Statement, he should be wary. There are various... 2nd December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update FPC getting closer to acting, but will tread carefully We got close to finally seeing some action from the Bank of England today. But in the event, the latest Financial Stability Report only prepped the ground for action from the Financial Policy... 1st December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Oct.) Household borrowing figures for October demonstrated that households continue to drive the UK recovery. While the figures probably don’t have any implications for the interest rate outlook, they may... 30th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Further FPC action would not undermine recovery We could finally see some policy action from the Bank of England next week – but not in the form of a tightening in monetary policy. The Financial Policy Committee (FPC) may flex its muscle by using... 27th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Autumn Statement adds to mounting pressure on retailers The measures announced in the Autumn Statement should provide a small boost to consumers’ incomes next year relative to the July Budget. But at just 0.2% of nominal income, it is unlikely to be... 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update UK Autumn Statement & Spending Review 2015 Checklist This checklist is intended to help clients keep track of the important measures and numbers announced during the Autumn Statement and Spending Review at 12.30pm and to provide some instant context... 25th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Retailers set for more than just a Black Friday boost Heavy discounting on the high street and online on Black Friday is likely to provide a bigger boost to spending this year than last. What’s more, the rise in real earnings, confidence and employment... 24th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Deflation Watch: Tuition fees push inflation further below zero After returning to negative territory in September, CPI inflation looks set to slip further below zero in October. While inflation looks odds on to post its lowest rate since March 1960, we do not... 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC still in no hurry to hike The “Super Thursday” announcements from the MPC were on the whole quite dovish, with the Committee signaling that it is still in no hurry to raise interest rates. We remain comfortable with our view... 5th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will car sales regain some pace ahead? Spending on cars has been cruising along nicely. But we doubt it will provide as much of a boost to consumer spending in coming years, particularly as temporary sources of support, such as pent-up... 5th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Sep.) Growth in household borrowing strengthened in September, supporting the ongoing recovery. And although mortgage approvals fell back, we believe this is a temporary blip with fundamentals still... 29th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Deflation Watch: Energy prices beckon deflation’s return It is likely that CPI inflation turned negative in September, and should remain close to zero for most of the rest of this year. However, as weak price pressures are being driven largely by lower... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Softer economic news further alleviates need for hike The MPC’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged at 0.5% this month would have been an easy one given the recent softening in both domestic and global economic news. While financial markets have... 8th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What would a Brexit mean for the devolved regions? While we think that the overall UK economy would do well either inside or outside the European Union, a Brexit could still have some significant implications for the devolved regions – most obviously... 7th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit would allow a more sensible migration policy It is generally assumed that a UK exit from the EU would lead to a sharp drop in migration, reducing the pool of labour and undermining economic growth. However, a Brexit could lead to a more sensible... 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
