UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Dec.) On the face of it, December’s household borrowing figures will not have eased mounting concerns regarding rapid unsecured credit growth and the sustainability of the consumer recovery. However, we do... 1st February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Consumer credit not a concern yet The pick-up in unsecured borrowing growth is starting to ring alarm bells, but we do not think that this poses a major threat – at least not yet. 27th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Why has deficit reduction slowed? The recent slowdown in the pace of deficit reduction seems to reflect both timing effects and a weaker economic performance than anticipated. Although progress may remain slow in the near term, we... 21st January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Why has wage growth slowed? The latest labour market figures showed that pay growth is still weaker than it was a few months ago. Given falling unemployment and the prospect of a rebound in inflation, this should be temporary... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Why has wage growth slowed? The latest labour market figures showed that pay growth is still weaker than it was a few months ago. Given falling unemployment and the prospect of a rebound in inflation, this should be temporary... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Deflation Watch: Lower oil prices won’t reverse inflation’s return December’s consumer prices figures should confirm that the UK’s brief period of deflation is over, by showing the second consecutive month of positive CPI inflation. What’s more, the recent further... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Lower inflation outlook to keep the MPC on hold for a while The MPC’s decision to leave interest rates on hold at 0.5% today, for the 82nd month in a row, was unsurprising given the recent fall-back in the oil price and renewed market concerns about the health... 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update “Clicks” fared better than “bricks” this Christmas The range of survey and anecdotal evidence out so far suggests that growth in high-street spending over the festive period as a whole was fairly reasonable. It is also clear that the gulf between... 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is sterling’s shaky start to the year a sign of things to come? A shift in market interest rate expectations, a spate of weak economic data and the looming “Brexit” vote are probably all partly to blame for sterling’s recent weakness. Although the currency looks... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Why did the recovery lose momentum in 2015? UK GDP growth looks like it slowed sharply in 2015. At first glance, this appears strange considering many factors – such as energy price falls – were supportive of growth. But, it looks like these... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Nov.) Household borrowing figures for November provided further evidence that households continue to drive the UK recovery. However, in combination with household data published in December’s Q3 National... 4th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Consumers are still the backbone of the economic recovery The latest Quarterly National Accounts showed that the overall economic recovery was slower than previously thought in Q3, but that household spending remains robust. What’s more, looking ahead, the... 23rd December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC to keep feet firmly on the ground despite Fed “lift off” The US Fed’s decision to finally press ahead and raise interest rates yesterday begged the question ofwhether the MPC will quickly follow suit. However, in the near term, the only British mention of... 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Deflation Watch: Inflation to pick up despite lower oil prices November’s consumer prices figures look likely to show that the UK’s brief period of negative inflation has now come to an end. What’s more, although oil prices have fallen further in December, we... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Input cost weakness means MPC is in no rush to hike The MPC’s decision to leave interest rates on hold again today highlights how the UK is set to tread the middle path between a loosening ECB and a tightening US Fed. A further fall in oil prices and a... 10th December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Have the Conservatives turned into Labour? The Autumn Statement took the Conservatives’ planned path for departmental spending another stepcloser to Labour’s manifesto plans. Admittedly, the overall fiscal consolidation this parliament is set... 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
