Global Economics Update Key risks for 2024 In this Global Economics Update, we describe eight of the biggest risks to our economic forecasts for 2024. The unusual nature of this cycle and uncertainties surrounding the transmission of monetary... 30th November 2023 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Update Autumn Statement 2023 Checklist This is an updated checklist which takes into account our latest expectations for the Autumn Statement. The checklist helps clients keep track of the key policies and forecasts announced during the... 20th November 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update How worried should we be about wage growth? While wage growth will continue to slow, the smaller-than-expected fall in September supports our view that the Bank of England will keep rates on hold at their current level of 5.25% until late in... 14th November 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update BoE doubles down on signal that rate cuts are far away The Bank’s decision to leave interest rates at 5.25% for the second time in a row and to double down on the message that rates cuts are far away supports our view that rates will stay at 5.25% until... 2nd November 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Weak housing market to squeeze spending and investment We suspect that more weakness in the housing market will weigh on real GDP by further reducing residential investment and consumer spending. This is one reason why we think the economy is close to a... 25th October 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Higher r* - bigger fiscal challenge, headwind for real asset prices As our new higher estimate of the real neutral interest rate, or r*, for 2030 appears to be above the assumption priced into the financial markets, we think that in the 2030s 10-year gilt yields will... 19th October 2023 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Update Wage pressures have peaked, but may ease only gradually There is a growing body of evidence that suggests wage pressures are past their peak, but it’s not clear how quickly wage growth will slow. The gradual loosening in the labour market and the... 18th October 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Households avoid mortgages as higher rates bite harder Higher interest rates weighed sharply on households’ demand for mortgages in Q3 and banks expect demand for mortgages to fall further in Q4. This is a clear sign that higher interest rates are working... 12th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update The bond market sell-off and the global economy The sell-off in bond markets has taken a breather today, helped in part by softer data on the US labour market. However, the scale of the moves over the past week has invoked comparisons to previous... 4th October 2023 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Update Surveys signal a slide in the economy While some measures of optimism have been improving, the majority of the survey evidence suggests the economy is weakening and the chances of the mild recession we have been forecasting have increased... 4th October 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Slower money growth shows higher rates are working The sharp slowdown in broad money growth since late last year suggests that higher interest rates are working by reducing households’ and firms’ demand for borrowing, which should lead to softer... 26th September 2023 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update Interest rates are at their peak The surprise decision by the Bank of England to leave interest rates unchanged at 5.25% today probably means that rates are already at their peak. We think rates will stay at this peak of 5.25% for... 21st September 2023 · 4 mins read
Climate Economics Update Rishi Sunak draws his UK climate battle lines The news that UK Prime Minster Sunak is set to further dilute the government’s climate policies demonstrates that when the political going gets tough, climate policies are the first to fall by the... 20th September 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Rise in oil prices not yet a big inflation risk The recent rise in oil prices to $90 per barrel means CPI inflation is likely to rise from 6.8% in July to 7.1% in August, but it won’t prevent inflation falling to the 2% target by the middle of next... 8th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Climate Economics Update Fiscal frugality collides with rising renewable costs The UK government’s failure to award any new offshore wind-power contracts in its latest procurement round ultimately stems from bean-counting stinginess and is nothing that a lot of extra government... 8th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Climate Economics Update Onshore wind policy U-turn doesn’t blow us away The relaxing of planning rules governing new onshore wind installations in England marks a shift away from the de facto ban that was put in place in 2015. But raising the bar for objections to land... 6th September 2023 · 5 mins read
