UK Economics Update Fiscal austerity keeps onus on MPC to support economy The MPC’s decision to leave interest rates on hold at 0.5% today – marking the 7th anniversary of rates being at this record low – was unsurprising given the softness of recent activity indicators and... 17th March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Fiscal austerity keeps onus on MPC to support economy The MPC’s decision to leave interest rates on hold at 0.5% today – marking the 7th anniversary of rates being at this record low – was unsurprising given the softness of recent activity indicators and... 17th March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update UK Budget 2016 Checklist While we think the UK will do well either inside or outside the EU in the long run, there is potential for a short-term hit to investment in particular. But we don’t think that this would derail the... 15th March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Should UK retailers fear a Brexit? The possibility of a Brexit has raised a number of worries for British retailers, including the prospect of falling consumer demand and rising imported goods costs. But while the short-term impact of... 14th March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will rising costs force retailers to sharply cut headcounts? News that a number of retailers are seeking to shrink their workforce this year suggests that the jobs recovery that only really got underway in late-2013 may be over already. What’s more, the BRC has... 10th March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Investment would bear the immediate brunt of a Brexit While we think the UK will do well either inside or outside the EU in the long run , there is potential for a short-term hit to investment in particular. But we don’t think that this would derail the... 7th March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Could savings on EU contributions boost the economy? One of the advantages of a vote to leave the EU would be the savings the UK could potentially make on its EU contributions. This money could in theory be used to give a boost to the economy, but there... 1st March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Jan.) January’s household borrowing figures will only have added to mounting concerns regarding rapid unsecured credit growth and the sustainability of the consumer recovery. However, at this stage we do... 29th February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Sterling to fall further – but that’s not necessarily a bad thing Sterling remains the main casualty of Brexit uncertainty and we expect the pound to fall further as the referendum nears. However, this should not be viewed as an entirely negative development, as the... 23rd February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update EU deal soon should pave way for a Brexit referendum in June The deal which looks likely to be sewn up at this week’s EU Council meeting should pave the way for David Cameron to announce a date for the EU referendum soon and officially launch his campaign to... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Lower interest rates to save Osborne’s bacon again While most developments since November’s Autumn Statement bode poorly for the public finances, lower interest rates should provide an offset. However, the Chancellor would be unwise to spend this... 18th February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update No need for the UK to join the negative rate club Talk of a UK interest rate cut has resurfaced in recent weeks, following the deterioration in global market sentiment and the moves by other central banks to cut rates. There is certainly scope for... 17th February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Deflation Watch: Oil price falls won’t prevent inflation pick-up January’s consumer prices figures should show a continuing movement away from deflation. While falling oil prices are being passed through to lower fuel prices at the pump, fuel price deflation will... 12th February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Dovish message from MPC, but 2016 rate hike still likely Today’s “Super Thursday” announcements were generally dovish but, true to form, Governor Carney gave mixed messages, striking a more hawkish tone at the press conference. While market expectations... 4th February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How much will workers gain from the recovery? While we are positive about the prospects for productivity growth, we don’t think workers will fully benefit from this and the gains will only partially feed through to higher wage growth. This means... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update EU draft deal leaves Brexit in the balance Today’s publication of a draft deal on the UK’s EU negotiations is another step towards a referendum as soon as June. The modest proposed reforms will probably leave the vote very close. If the UK did... 2nd February 2016 · 1 min read
