UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Recession warnings haven’t spooked investors This week the Treasury warned that a vote to leave the EU would result in a recession, while GDPdata added to the evidence that Brexit uncertainty contributed to Q1’s slowdown. But there weremore... 27th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Can UK equities weather a Brexit? We don’t think that a vote to leave the EU would have a very significant negative impact on the FTSE 100, although the effect on UK indices of smaller firms might be more pronounced. Further ahead, a... 25th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Treasury’s Brexit recession warning seems overdone We think the Treasury (HMT) report, published today, suggesting that the UK will go into recession if it leaves the EU goes a bit far. Existing trading relationships will remain in place over the two... 23rd May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Remain poll surge eases markets’ Brexit jitters This week saw the campaign to remain in the EU surge ahead in opinion polls, helping to ease investors’ Brexit worries. Meanwhile, strong retail sales data suggest that consumers haven’t been as badly... 20th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Slowdown isn’t just about Brexit This week’s dismal trade, industrial production and construction data has further intensified concerns that Brexit uncertainty is having an effect on activity. Nonetheless, they also highlight that... 13th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC strikes a gloomy note on Brexit risks In its latest Inflation Report, the MPC sounded a stark warning about the potential adverse effects on the economy of a Brexit, but nonetheless continued to indicate that, if the UK votes to stay in... 12th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How big a deal is immigration from the EU? This morning’s ONS release, showing there has been a large recent rise in short-term EU immigration, will probably lead to exaggerated claims about the UK needing to regain control of its borders... 12th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Uncertainty hits business surveys The gloomy tone of this week’s PMI data provided further concrete evidence that the uncertainty generated ahead of the EU referendum is weighing on activity. As with last week’s GDP data, other... 6th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How will the Inflation Report deal with Brexit risk? We doubt that the MPC will model separate ‘remain’ and ‘leave’ scenarios in its Inflation Report next week. But Brexit uncertainty will still affect its forecasts via its assumptions about the... 4th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What to expect on EU referendum day and shortly after The latest Markit/CIPS manufacturing survey suggested that the sector began Q2 on a poor footing and will increase fears that the economic recovery will slow further inQ2 as the EU referendum nears... 3rd May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Slowdown not all due to Brexit fears GDP data released this week suggests that Brexit uncertainty probably weighed on growth in Q1. But other factors were at play too. And recent surveys generally indicate that the impact of Brexit... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Putting the retail sector’s productivity problem in context The retail sector’s productivity performance has been better than it has often been given credit for. That said, with the sector particularly hard-hit by the new National Living Wage, boosting... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Mar.) March’s household borrowing figures will only have added to concerns that the consumer recovery is built on unsustainably-high rates of unsecured lending growth. But there are reasons to think that... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is sterling’s recent rally here to stay? Sterling’s recent rally as expectations of a Brexit have fallen suggests that the pound will rise further if the UK votes to remain in the EU. But there are reasons why the rally is unlikely to last. 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Uncertainty starts to weigh With only two months left until the referendum, we will be publishing a weekly Brexit Watch to help clients keep track of all the latest developments. Evidence that the economy is beginning to suffer... 22nd April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will a rise in saving slow the consumer recovery? The fall in the household saving ratio to a record low in 2015 might suggest that recent robust consumer spending growth is unsustainable and that the saving ratio will need to rise again. But the... 22nd April 2016 · 1 min read
