UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: All eyes on final flurry of opinion polls Betting and financial markets continue to consider a vote to remain in the EU by far the more likely outcome in tomorrow’s referendum as we await the remaining few opinion polls. 22nd June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Polls and bookmakers still at odds Betting markets – which have a good track record of forecasting votes – still appear to consider a vote to remain far more likely than a leave vote, even though opinion polls point to a neck-and-neck... 21st June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What is going to move markets before the Referendum result? It is generally accepted that a vote to leave the EU in this week’s Referendum would have an adverse impact on financial markets, in particular, a drop in the pound. But any movements will crucially... 21st June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Markets bounce as Leave loses poll lead The Leave campaign’s earlier momentum appears to have stalled over the weekend as referendum campaigning resumed on Sunday, improving sentiment in both UK and global markets. 20th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Markets’ referendum jitters go global Brexit fears have started to take their toll in global – as well as UK – markets in the past week as opinion polls showed support for Leave rising less than a week before the EU referendum. In... 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Referendum effects muddy picture for MPC The MPC today repeated its warnings about the potential adverse effects on the economy of a Brexit , but reiterated that the policy implications of a Brexit would not be clear-cut. Meanwhile, if the... 16th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Government’s austerity warnings don’t look plausible Today’s warnings from the “Remain” camp that the Government would ramp up austerity immediately in a post-Brexit emergency Budget do not look very plausible. It is more likely that the Government... 15th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Leave camp momentum boosts rate cut chances Brexit concerns have intensified over the past week, with polls very close, and this was clearly reflected in falling interest rate expectations (and consequently sterling). But despite 10-year gilt... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How UK politics could affect post-Brexit EU relationship A key uncertainty following the EU referendum on 23rd June will be the impact of the vote on domestic political factors. If the UK votes to leave, the political situation will have a key bearing on... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is a rise in inflation “baked in the cake”? It’s assumed that a rise in inflation this year is “baked in the cake”, with all economists bar one (out of 33 polled by HM Treasury) forecasting a rise in inflation between now and year-end. Butwith... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How might the MPC loosen policy after a Brexit? It is by no means guaranteed that the MPC would loosen policy after a Brexit vote. But if it did want to give the economy some extra stimulus, an interest rate cut would not be its only option. 8th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: PMIs show uncertainty biting Data released this week confirmed that Brexit uncertainty is negatively affecting businesses – but consumers continue to look considerably less concerned. Although markets have responded to the recent... 3rd June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Key events to watch in the run-up to the EU referendum With the EU referendum now just three weeks away, we have highlighted below some of the key events which could potentially sway voters and move markets in the build-up to the vote. 2nd June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Apr.) As expected, April’s household borrowing figures provided further evidence that the mortgage market is cooling. By contrast, unsecured lending growth remains high and could prompt additional action... 1st June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Recession warnings haven’t spooked investors This week the Treasury warned that a vote to leave the EU would result in a recession, while GDPdata added to the evidence that Brexit uncertainty contributed to Q1’s slowdown. But there weremore... 27th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Can UK equities weather a Brexit? We don’t think that a vote to leave the EU would have a very significant negative impact on the FTSE 100, although the effect on UK indices of smaller firms might be more pronounced. Further ahead, a... 25th May 2016 · 1 min read
