UK Economics Update Is sterling’s recent rally here to stay? Sterling’s recent rally as expectations of a Brexit have fallen suggests that the pound will rise further if the UK votes to remain in the EU. But there are reasons why the rally is unlikely to last. 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Uncertainty starts to weigh With only two months left until the referendum, we will be publishing a weekly Brexit Watch to help clients keep track of all the latest developments. Evidence that the economy is beginning to suffer... 22nd April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will a rise in saving slow the consumer recovery? The fall in the household saving ratio to a record low in 2015 might suggest that recent robust consumer spending growth is unsustainable and that the saving ratio will need to rise again. But the... 22nd April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Gilt yields to rise regardless of referendum outcome It is possible that an out vote in the EU referendum could push up mortgage interest rates. But if it did, we suspect any rise would be modest and that the drivers of that rise would not be those... 22nd April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Treasury’s Brexit report rests on some pessimistic assumptions The report by HM Treasury, published today, on the long-run economic impact of a Brexit, paints a fairly gloomy picture. However, this is just another in what is an extensive and wide-ranging set of... 18th April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC gives warnings about EU referendum The MPC’s unanimous decision to leave Bank Rate on hold at 0.5% today was unsurprising given recent signs of a slowdown in economic activity and heightened uncertainty surrounding the EU referendum... 14th April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Economy weathering Brexit uncertainty reasonably well We have already written about how Brexit uncertainty is affecting financial markets, with the pound in particular coming under pressure. But it is harder to find concrete evidence that the looming EU... 6th April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How worrying is the record current account deficit? Today’s data showing that the UK’s current account deficit hit a record high will reinforce fears that the EU referendum could trigger a balance of payments crisis. If funding inflows dried up, the... 31st March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Feb.) February’s household borrowing figures will have done nothing to ease concerns regarding rapid unsecured credit growth and the sustainability of the consumer recovery. But we do not yet consider the... 31st March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is there still a “Brexit premium” on UK assets? Despite the recent recovery in most UK markets, there is still evidence that they are bracing themselves for a possible Brexit. Accordingly, we think there is scope for markets to move significantly... 30th March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update FPC “action” won’t derail the economic recovery The relatively timid measures announced by the Bank of England’s Financial Policy Committee (FPC) today underlined that it is set to tread cautiously when implementing macroprudential policy... 29th March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What hasn’t Mr Osborne ruled out cutting? By promising no further welfare cuts, the Government has ruled out yet another way of raising some money should it need to. This suggests that the Conservatives will struggle to meet their strict... 23rd March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will online sales growth keep slowing? Online sales growth – while still very strong – has been slowing over recent years. However, we think the big slowdown in growth should be behind us, with innovations in mobile technology and internet... 23rd March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Deflation Watch: Risk of deflation appears to be passing February’s consumer prices figures should show inflation creeping further above the zero rates seen for most of last year. Although the risk of a relapse cannot be entirely ruled out – if, for example... 18th March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update OBR too downbeat about productivity The OBR’s decision to cut its productivity growth forecasts left the Chancellor scrambling to find some money to achieve his 2019/20 surplus goal. But we think that productivity growth will be much... 18th March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Households still facing big squeeze despite Budget giveaway While the measures announced at yesterday’s Budget amounted to a small net giveaway to consumers, the bigger picture is that a significant fiscal squeeze still lies ahead. And although retailers did... 17th March 2016 · 1 min read
