UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Markets keep their cool despite slowdown signs Almost a month on from the historic vote to leave the EU, some of the first indicators of the state of the economy appear to point to a marked slowdown in growth. But the prospect of policy support to... 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Tentative signs of post-referendum slowdown What little data we have had so far suggest that the economy has weakened following the vote to leave the EU. Although this wasn’t enough to persuade the MPC to loosen policy in July, easing is by no... 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC must deliver in August The Monetary Policy Committee’s inaction today will probably delay a policy response to the UK’s vote to leave the EU by only three weeks. But with market confidence fragile, it is now vitally... 14th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How big is the threat from property? The commercial property sector has so far been the main focal point of Brexit concerns. But there are reasons to be hopeful that its problems won’t push the broader economy into a deep recession. 13th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Support for the economy taking shape The headlines this week have concentrated on the negative impact that Brexit has had on sterling and confidence, as well as the temporary suspension of trading in a number of commercial property funds... 8th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Don’t panic about the pound While the downward pressure on the pound has increased in response to some adverse post-referendum developments, we have long argued that a substantially lower exchange rate would be an important... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update FPC announces action to support bank lending Coming after Governor Carney’s initial statement following the referendum to “take all necessary steps to meet its responsibilities for monetary and financial stability”, Project Reassure continued... 5th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: One week on It has now been a week since the result of the UK’s referendum on its membership of the EU was announced and the market reaction has been significant, although perhaps less severe than some had... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What have we learned since the referendum? While it’s extremely early days yet, developments in the week since the EU referendum have not altered our view that the economic damage will be smaller than others have suggested. 30th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (May) Although May’s household borrowing figures showed that mortgage approvals recovered from April’s 11-month low, there are still signs that the mortgage market is slowing. Meanwhile, pre-referendum... 29th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How does markets’ Brexit shock compare to past crises? While Friday’s largest-ever daily drop in sterling and the significant hit to UK equities following the vote to leave the EU were undoubtedly extremely significant, the overall degree of market... 27th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Leave vote will weaken spending, but not dramatically so Given the prolonged period of political and economic uncertainty ahead, it would be surprising if there weren’t at least some adverse impact on consumer confidence and hence on consumer spending as a... 27th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is Article 50 the only way for the UK to leave the EU? Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union provides a legal route by which the UK can withdraw from the EU. But could the UK bypass Article 50? And what are the chances that the vote to leave could... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit won’t destroy the UK economy The vote to leave the EU has clearly weakened the near-term outlook for the UK economy. But we still think that the ultimate damage will be smaller than many estimates have suggested. 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update A brief guide to referendum night The wait is finally over. After months of campaigning, TV debates and a torrent of leaflets, the UK public today go to the polls to decide on the country’s future in the European Union. This Update is... 23rd June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Markets expect voters to reject Brexit The last few opinion polls released before EU referendum voting closes appear to have largely convinced markets that the UK will vote to remain in the EU. 23rd June 2016 · 1 min read
