UK Economics Update Leave vote will weaken spending, but not dramatically so Given the prolonged period of political and economic uncertainty ahead, it would be surprising if there weren’t at least some adverse impact on consumer confidence and hence on consumer spending as a... 27th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is Article 50 the only way for the UK to leave the EU? Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union provides a legal route by which the UK can withdraw from the EU. But could the UK bypass Article 50? And what are the chances that the vote to leave could... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit won’t destroy the UK economy The vote to leave the EU has clearly weakened the near-term outlook for the UK economy. But we still think that the ultimate damage will be smaller than many estimates have suggested. 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update A brief guide to referendum night The wait is finally over. After months of campaigning, TV debates and a torrent of leaflets, the UK public today go to the polls to decide on the country’s future in the European Union. This Update is... 23rd June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Markets expect voters to reject Brexit The last few opinion polls released before EU referendum voting closes appear to have largely convinced markets that the UK will vote to remain in the EU. 23rd June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: All eyes on final flurry of opinion polls Betting and financial markets continue to consider a vote to remain in the EU by far the more likely outcome in tomorrow’s referendum as we await the remaining few opinion polls. 22nd June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Polls and bookmakers still at odds Betting markets – which have a good track record of forecasting votes – still appear to consider a vote to remain far more likely than a leave vote, even though opinion polls point to a neck-and-neck... 21st June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What is going to move markets before the Referendum result? It is generally accepted that a vote to leave the EU in this week’s Referendum would have an adverse impact on financial markets, in particular, a drop in the pound. But any movements will crucially... 21st June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Markets bounce as Leave loses poll lead The Leave campaign’s earlier momentum appears to have stalled over the weekend as referendum campaigning resumed on Sunday, improving sentiment in both UK and global markets. 20th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Markets’ referendum jitters go global Brexit fears have started to take their toll in global – as well as UK – markets in the past week as opinion polls showed support for Leave rising less than a week before the EU referendum. In... 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Referendum effects muddy picture for MPC The MPC today repeated its warnings about the potential adverse effects on the economy of a Brexit , but reiterated that the policy implications of a Brexit would not be clear-cut. Meanwhile, if the... 16th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Government’s austerity warnings don’t look plausible Today’s warnings from the “Remain” camp that the Government would ramp up austerity immediately in a post-Brexit emergency Budget do not look very plausible. It is more likely that the Government... 15th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Leave camp momentum boosts rate cut chances Brexit concerns have intensified over the past week, with polls very close, and this was clearly reflected in falling interest rate expectations (and consequently sterling). But despite 10-year gilt... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How UK politics could affect post-Brexit EU relationship A key uncertainty following the EU referendum on 23rd June will be the impact of the vote on domestic political factors. If the UK votes to leave, the political situation will have a key bearing on... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is a rise in inflation “baked in the cake”? It’s assumed that a rise in inflation this year is “baked in the cake”, with all economists bar one (out of 33 polled by HM Treasury) forecasting a rise in inflation between now and year-end. Butwith... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How might the MPC loosen policy after a Brexit? It is by no means guaranteed that the MPC would loosen policy after a Brexit vote. But if it did want to give the economy some extra stimulus, an interest rate cut would not be its only option. 8th June 2016 · 1 min read
