UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Higher borrowing won’t deter the Chancellor This week’s economic data broke from the recent upbeat trend, with inflation jumping up and the latest public finances figures highlighting the challenge that the Chancellor faces in the Autumn... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is the MPC going soft on inflation? Apparent concerns in the bond market that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has gone soft on inflation look overdone. We expect the forthcoming rise in inflation to be transitory. But if it isn’t... 18th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: A second Scottish independence referendum? Another dramatic week in the Brexit saga saw the pound fall further, bond yields rise, the chance of another Scottish independence referendum before long build and Marmite almost get pulled off the... 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will gilt yields carry on rising? We suspect that the forces which have pushed gilt yields higher in recent weeks have now largely runtheir course. Accordingly, we expect yields to end both this year and next close to current levels. 11th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: “Hard” Brexit worries hit the pound Markets have been shaken this week by the fallout from the Conservative Party Conference, which revealed that policymakers are set to take the UK down the “hard” Brexit route. By contrast, the... 7th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Still no need to worry about the pound While the pound’s latest dip has partly reflected concerns over the prospect of a “hard Brexit”, thecurrency’s depreciation should continue to cushion the economic impact of the vote to leave the EU. 3rd October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Is a “Hard Brexit” on the cards? This week provided some further indications that policymakers are leaning towards a harder form of Brexit package than initially anticipated. However, the UK at least appears to be headed into... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Consumer spending resilient ahead of referendum The latest Quarterly National Accounts showed that consumer spending held up well ahead of the referendum. Looking ahead, although we expect some slowdown, there are a number of factors which should... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is the recent surge in the money supply a concern? The recent surge in the money supply has caused some commentators to suggest that the MPC’s current monetary policy stance is far too loose. But we think that this rapid rise should prove to be... 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Aug.) The latest data suggest that gold buying from the official sector recovered somewhat in August but overall demand in the year to date remains subdued. That said, we think that the case for gold as a... 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Sep.) September’s CBI Distributive Trades Survey suggests that the recent strength in retail sales growth won’t last for much longer. But the survey hasn’t been an especially good guide of retail sales, so... 27th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How are retailers coping with the National Living Wage? It is almost six months since the introduction of the National Living Wage (NLW) and the initial impact on employment and wages in the retail sector does not appear to be particularly severe. But its... 26th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: More evidence of support from fall in the pound This week brought another wave of robust economic data and further evidence that sterling’s slideseems to be providing a boost for manufacturers. Meanwhile, there have been further mixed signalscoming... 23rd September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will the Term Funding Scheme boost bank lending? While the Bank of England’s Term Funding Scheme (TFS) – which started this week – should prevent a sharp slowdown in bank lending ahead, it is unlikely to provide a meaningful boost. Indeed, while the... 22nd September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What are the alternatives to a points-based migration system? The Prime Minister’s rejection of a points-based migration system (PBS) has left several alternatives which may have more beneficial economic effects. In reality though, the UK’s migration policy... 19th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Further monetary policy easing to come This week’s informal summit in Bratislava is unlikely to be a turning point in the Brexit saga, but itwill highlight how the UK’s vote to leave the bloc is likely to force faster change within the EU... 16th September 2016 · 1 min read
