UK Economics Update Will the post-Brexit slump be as bad as the PMIs suggest? The sharp deterioration in July’s Markit/CIPS PMIs have highlighted the danger of a deep recession in the wake of the referendum vote. While it would be unwise to dismiss this warning, there are some... 9th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Policy response should cushion hit to growth The MPC’s decision to announce a package of stimulus measures yesterday was no doubt influenced by the thoroughly downbeat tone of this week’s survey data. While it’s clear that growth is set to slow... 5th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update The MPC delivers & signals more to come The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) today made good on its pledge at July’s meeting to implement a package of policy measures to cushion the economy from the adverse effects of the... 4th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Growth slowed significantly around the vote Data released this week imply that GDP growth ground to a halt in the two months preceding the referendum. And survey indicators suggest that conditions worsened further in the weeks following the... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Jun.) June’s household borrowing figures highlighted that the housing market cooled further around the time of the EU referendum. But there were no signs of a more general slowdown in lending. Nonetheless... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Markets keep their cool despite slowdown signs Almost a month on from the historic vote to leave the EU, some of the first indicators of the state of the economy appear to point to a marked slowdown in growth. But the prospect of policy support to... 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Tentative signs of post-referendum slowdown What little data we have had so far suggest that the economy has weakened following the vote to leave the EU. Although this wasn’t enough to persuade the MPC to loosen policy in July, easing is by no... 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC must deliver in August The Monetary Policy Committee’s inaction today will probably delay a policy response to the UK’s vote to leave the EU by only three weeks. But with market confidence fragile, it is now vitally... 14th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How big is the threat from property? The commercial property sector has so far been the main focal point of Brexit concerns. But there are reasons to be hopeful that its problems won’t push the broader economy into a deep recession. 13th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Support for the economy taking shape The headlines this week have concentrated on the negative impact that Brexit has had on sterling and confidence, as well as the temporary suspension of trading in a number of commercial property funds... 8th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Don’t panic about the pound While the downward pressure on the pound has increased in response to some adverse post-referendum developments, we have long argued that a substantially lower exchange rate would be an important... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update FPC announces action to support bank lending Coming after Governor Carney’s initial statement following the referendum to “take all necessary steps to meet its responsibilities for monetary and financial stability”, Project Reassure continued... 5th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: One week on It has now been a week since the result of the UK’s referendum on its membership of the EU was announced and the market reaction has been significant, although perhaps less severe than some had... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What have we learned since the referendum? While it’s extremely early days yet, developments in the week since the EU referendum have not altered our view that the economic damage will be smaller than others have suggested. 30th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (May) Although May’s household borrowing figures showed that mortgage approvals recovered from April’s 11-month low, there are still signs that the mortgage market is slowing. Meanwhile, pre-referendum... 29th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How does markets’ Brexit shock compare to past crises? While Friday’s largest-ever daily drop in sterling and the significant hit to UK equities following the vote to leave the EU were undoubtedly extremely significant, the overall degree of market... 27th June 2016 · 1 min read
