UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Oct.) October’s household borrowing figures provided further evidence that the slowdown in mortgage lending has bottomed out and that consumers’ appetite for debt hasn’t been affected much by the Brexit... 29th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Fiscal watchdog joins debate on Brexit impact This week brought the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) first assessment of the effect of the Brexit vote on the economy and the public finances. This was more upbeat than had been anticipated... 25th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Chancellor “just about manages” to help consumers The net giveaway to consumers in the Autumn Statement was small compared to previouslyannounced takeaways. Accordingly, fiscal policy should still weigh on households’ spending power over the next few... 25th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Did Mr Hammond squander a golden opportunity? Philip Hammond’s first (and last) Autumn Statement has been generally well received as a compromise between the conflicting needs to repair the UK public finances and provide the economy with more... 24th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update UK Autumn Statement 2016 Checklist This checklist is intended to help clients keep track of the important measures and numbers announced during the Autumn Statement at 12.30pm and to provide some instant context. 22nd November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Some more mixed news on the economy This week brought some more mixed news on the state of the economy after the referendum, but markets have revised up their expectations for interest rates, and gilt yields have risen, regardless. 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Trump helps sterling find floor Today’s figures confirmed the indications from the surveys that the leave vote is starting to sap the jobs recovery of its previous strength. 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Trump victory not a game-changer for the UK While Donald Trump’s victory in the US Presidential election adds another element of uncertainty to the UK’s economic outlook, there are reasons why the consequences for the UK may be smaller and less... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: High-court ruling may delay, not cancel, Brexit Thursday’s High Court ruling on Article 50 is unlikely to prevent Brexit from happening, but it raises the chance that the start of the process gets delayed. Moreover, just as markets were looking... 4th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Inflation Report presents sanguine economic outlook The unanimous decision by the MPC to leave interest rates and its asset purchases on hold in November did not come as a surprise given the continued run of upbeat news on the health of the economy... 3rd November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What would be the impact of a cut in VAT? While the fiscal cost of cutting Value Added Tax (VAT) would be quite high, it could provide theeconomy with valuable support by limiting the rise in inflation and associated real income squeeze. 2nd November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Sep.) September’s household borrowing figures highlight that the housing market has started to stabilise and that consumers’ appetite for debt hasn’t taken much of a hit following the referendum. And while... 31st October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Bleak forecasts proved unfounded This week’s economic data brought confirmation that the immediate economic impact of the vote to leave the EU has not been nearly as severe as many had initially expected and gives us reason to be... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update 1992 or 2008? There are some reasons why the recent fall in the pound will be less positive for the economy than that seen after 1992’s ERM exit. But there are also reasons to think that it might be more positive... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Oct.) While consumer confidence fell a little in October, the headline balance is still high by past standards and points to strong retail sales growth at the start of Q4. 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Are retail sales providing a misleadingly-upbeat picture? As one of the most timely and frequent indicators of household spending growth, attention naturally falls on the monthly retail sales numbers to gauge the strength of activity in the consumer sector... 26th October 2016 · 1 min read
