UK Economics Update How are retailers coping with the National Living Wage? It is almost six months since the introduction of the National Living Wage (NLW) and the initial impact on employment and wages in the retail sector does not appear to be particularly severe. But its... 26th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: More evidence of support from fall in the pound This week brought another wave of robust economic data and further evidence that sterling’s slideseems to be providing a boost for manufacturers. Meanwhile, there have been further mixed signalscoming... 23rd September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will the Term Funding Scheme boost bank lending? While the Bank of England’s Term Funding Scheme (TFS) – which started this week – should prevent a sharp slowdown in bank lending ahead, it is unlikely to provide a meaningful boost. Indeed, while the... 22nd September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What are the alternatives to a points-based migration system? The Prime Minister’s rejection of a points-based migration system (PBS) has left several alternatives which may have more beneficial economic effects. In reality though, the UK’s migration policy... 19th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Further monetary policy easing to come This week’s informal summit in Bratislava is unlikely to be a turning point in the Brexit saga, but itwill highlight how the UK’s vote to leave the bloc is likely to force faster change within the EU... 16th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC leaves the door open for another rate cut in November While the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) decision to leave interest rates and the scale of its asset purchases unchanged this month came as no surprise after recent upbeat economic data and the... 15th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Recession fears continue to ease This week’s data provided further support for our view that the near-term hit to the economy won’t be as severe as many of the pessimistic pre-referendum forecasts. Indeed, while the economy has... 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Post-referendum hit eased in August While this week’s data still clearly point to a slowdown in the economy following the leave vote, they also suggest that conditions improved in August following the immediate post-referendum shock... 2nd September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will the Brexit vote put the brakes on car spending? Spending on the high street has remained resilient in the few months after the referendum. But one area of spending where Brexit uncertainty may already be taking its toll is car sales. The 72,727... 1st September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Jul.) July’s household borrowing figures highlighted that the housing market continued to cool following the EU referendum and there were signs that consumers’ appetite for debt took a bit of a hit as well... 30th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Surveys point to slowdown but not collapse Data released this week provide further evidence that growth is slowing following the vote to leave the EU. However, they generally don’t point to an outright contraction in activity either, adding... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Corporate bond rate falls won’t save business investment Despite a fall in corporate bond yields since the referendum, we still expect business investment to be the largest near-term casualty of the vote to leave. Indeed, the fall in the pound will increase... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: First hard data give some cause for optimism The first raft of official data covering the post-referendum period, released this week, was surprisingly upbeat in the main. Overall, the data add weight to our view that while the economy is set to... 19th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Resilient consumers help to limit post-vote hit This week’s data provided more evidence that business investment and the property market will be hit hard by the leave vote. But with signs of resilience in consumer spending, and the Bank of England... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Very low gilt yields are here to stay While some of the forces recently putting strong downward pressure on gilt yields may ease a bit in the coming months, the prospect of a further prolonged period of ultra-loose monetary policy... 11th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will the BoE’s corporate bond buying make a difference? While the uncertainty generated by the EU referendum result clearly means that business investment is likely to fall in the near term, the Bank of England’s corporate bond buying scheme should help to... 10th August 2016 · 1 min read
