UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Sep.) September’s household borrowing figures highlight that the housing market has started to stabilise and that consumers’ appetite for debt hasn’t taken much of a hit following the referendum. And while... 31st October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Bleak forecasts proved unfounded This week’s economic data brought confirmation that the immediate economic impact of the vote to leave the EU has not been nearly as severe as many had initially expected and gives us reason to be... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update 1992 or 2008? There are some reasons why the recent fall in the pound will be less positive for the economy than that seen after 1992’s ERM exit. But there are also reasons to think that it might be more positive... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Oct.) While consumer confidence fell a little in October, the headline balance is still high by past standards and points to strong retail sales growth at the start of Q4. 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Are retail sales providing a misleadingly-upbeat picture? As one of the most timely and frequent indicators of household spending growth, attention naturally falls on the monthly retail sales numbers to gauge the strength of activity in the consumer sector... 26th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Higher borrowing won’t deter the Chancellor This week’s economic data broke from the recent upbeat trend, with inflation jumping up and the latest public finances figures highlighting the challenge that the Chancellor faces in the Autumn... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is the MPC going soft on inflation? Apparent concerns in the bond market that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has gone soft on inflation look overdone. We expect the forthcoming rise in inflation to be transitory. But if it isn’t... 18th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: A second Scottish independence referendum? Another dramatic week in the Brexit saga saw the pound fall further, bond yields rise, the chance of another Scottish independence referendum before long build and Marmite almost get pulled off the... 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will gilt yields carry on rising? We suspect that the forces which have pushed gilt yields higher in recent weeks have now largely runtheir course. Accordingly, we expect yields to end both this year and next close to current levels. 11th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: “Hard” Brexit worries hit the pound Markets have been shaken this week by the fallout from the Conservative Party Conference, which revealed that policymakers are set to take the UK down the “hard” Brexit route. By contrast, the... 7th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Still no need to worry about the pound While the pound’s latest dip has partly reflected concerns over the prospect of a “hard Brexit”, thecurrency’s depreciation should continue to cushion the economic impact of the vote to leave the EU. 3rd October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Is a “Hard Brexit” on the cards? This week provided some further indications that policymakers are leaning towards a harder form of Brexit package than initially anticipated. However, the UK at least appears to be headed into... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Consumer spending resilient ahead of referendum The latest Quarterly National Accounts showed that consumer spending held up well ahead of the referendum. Looking ahead, although we expect some slowdown, there are a number of factors which should... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is the recent surge in the money supply a concern? The recent surge in the money supply has caused some commentators to suggest that the MPC’s current monetary policy stance is far too loose. But we think that this rapid rise should prove to be... 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Aug.) The latest data suggest that gold buying from the official sector recovered somewhat in August but overall demand in the year to date remains subdued. That said, we think that the case for gold as a... 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Sep.) September’s CBI Distributive Trades Survey suggests that the recent strength in retail sales growth won’t last for much longer. But the survey hasn’t been an especially good guide of retail sales, so... 27th September 2016 · 1 min read
