UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Dec.) December’s household borrowing figures showed that demand has continued to return to the housing market, following a lull around the referendum, but that consumer credit growth slowed for the first... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Government gets the ball rolling on Brexit bill While the Supreme Court decision won’t prevent Brexit from happening, it has perhaps increased the chance that Theresa May’s timeline for triggering Article 50 will slip and/or that there could be... 27th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Does the Supreme Court decision matter? Today’s decision by the Supreme Court to uphold the High Court’s ruling that the Government must have Parliament’s approval before triggering Article 50 is still significant. In fact, arguably, the... 24th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Pound welcomes May’s Brexit plans The unveiling of the Government’s broad plans for Brexit helped to drive the pound higher this week. However, this probably largely reflects a slight reduction in uncertainty, rather than optimism... 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Six key takeaways from Theresa May’s Brexit plan Today’s speech by PM Theresa May, which set out the Government’s broad objectives ahead of the formal negotiations with the EU, contained little more than what was widely expected. Nonetheless, it did... 17th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Bumpy ride for sterling The pound has suffered another bumpy ride this week, as concerns about the economic impact of a “hard Brexit” have lingered. That said, some of the positive impacts of the lower exchange rate were... 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Still no need to panic about the pound While the latest fall in the pound could potentially push inflation higher than otherwise, it should strengthen the already considerable beneficial effects of a weaker currency too. 10th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Stock market starts 2017 on a high The very beginning of 2017 has not been shy of Brexit-related drama, although none of it appears to have particularly rattled financial markets. This probably reflects the fact that the latest data... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Nov.) November’s household borrowing figures showed that borrowing growth remains strong, despite the Brexit vote, and that the housing market continues to regain its momentum. Admittedly, the small rise in... 4th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Strong spending rests on some shaky foundations The latest Quarterly National Accounts provided further reasons to think that recent rates of spending growth will not be sustained next year. That said, we do not anticipate that a dramatic slowdown... 23rd December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Possibility of “transitional” deal gains further traction There are indications that the Government may be moving away from the recent “soft” Brexit rhetoric this week. But given the growing signs that it is also considering some sort of “transitional”... 23rd December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Are exporters squandering the drop in the pound? On the face of it, the early evidence suggests that exporters are using the drop in the pound to boost margins as opposed to market share. This poses a risk to our optimistic forecasts for exports... 20th December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: More cause for optimism but price pressures grow This week has brought further indications that the Government is leaning towards a soft(ish) form of Brexit and some sort of transitional arrangement. Meanwhile, the economy has continued to hold up... 16th December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC won’t follow the Fed The unanimous decision by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to leave interest rates on hold and the scale of its asset purchases unchanged, at the same time as the US Fed has resumed tightening... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Supreme Court won’t delay Article 50 Although we won’t know the outcome of this week’s Supreme Court hearing until (probably) January, whichever way it goes, the Government may still be able to trigger Article 50 by March 31st. That said... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: More evidence suggesting soft(ish) Brexit likely There have been further indications this week that the government is moving away from some of the “hard Brexit” rhetoric which had emerged in recent months. That said, the government faces a difficult... 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
