UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Possibility of “transitional” deal gains further traction There are indications that the Government may be moving away from the recent “soft” Brexit rhetoric this week. But given the growing signs that it is also considering some sort of “transitional”... 23rd December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Are exporters squandering the drop in the pound? On the face of it, the early evidence suggests that exporters are using the drop in the pound to boost margins as opposed to market share. This poses a risk to our optimistic forecasts for exports... 20th December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: More cause for optimism but price pressures grow This week has brought further indications that the Government is leaning towards a soft(ish) form of Brexit and some sort of transitional arrangement. Meanwhile, the economy has continued to hold up... 16th December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC won’t follow the Fed The unanimous decision by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to leave interest rates on hold and the scale of its asset purchases unchanged, at the same time as the US Fed has resumed tightening... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Supreme Court won’t delay Article 50 Although we won’t know the outcome of this week’s Supreme Court hearing until (probably) January, whichever way it goes, the Government may still be able to trigger Article 50 by March 31st. That said... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: More evidence suggesting soft(ish) Brexit likely There have been further indications this week that the government is moving away from some of the “hard Brexit” rhetoric which had emerged in recent months. That said, the government faces a difficult... 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Oct.) October’s household borrowing figures provided further evidence that the slowdown in mortgage lending has bottomed out and that consumers’ appetite for debt hasn’t been affected much by the Brexit... 29th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Fiscal watchdog joins debate on Brexit impact This week brought the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) first assessment of the effect of the Brexit vote on the economy and the public finances. This was more upbeat than had been anticipated... 25th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Chancellor “just about manages” to help consumers The net giveaway to consumers in the Autumn Statement was small compared to previouslyannounced takeaways. Accordingly, fiscal policy should still weigh on households’ spending power over the next few... 25th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Did Mr Hammond squander a golden opportunity? Philip Hammond’s first (and last) Autumn Statement has been generally well received as a compromise between the conflicting needs to repair the UK public finances and provide the economy with more... 24th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update UK Autumn Statement 2016 Checklist This checklist is intended to help clients keep track of the important measures and numbers announced during the Autumn Statement at 12.30pm and to provide some instant context. 22nd November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Some more mixed news on the economy This week brought some more mixed news on the state of the economy after the referendum, but markets have revised up their expectations for interest rates, and gilt yields have risen, regardless. 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Trump helps sterling find floor Today’s figures confirmed the indications from the surveys that the leave vote is starting to sap the jobs recovery of its previous strength. 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Trump victory not a game-changer for the UK While Donald Trump’s victory in the US Presidential election adds another element of uncertainty to the UK’s economic outlook, there are reasons why the consequences for the UK may be smaller and less... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: High-court ruling may delay, not cancel, Brexit Thursday’s High Court ruling on Article 50 is unlikely to prevent Brexit from happening, but it raises the chance that the start of the process gets delayed. Moreover, just as markets were looking... 4th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Inflation Report presents sanguine economic outlook The unanimous decision by the MPC to leave interest rates and its asset purchases on hold in November did not come as a surprise given the continued run of upbeat news on the health of the economy... 3rd November 2016 · 1 min read
