UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Parliamentary “ping-pong” unlikely to delay A50 While the possibility of Parliamentary “ping-pong” suggests that a triggering of Article 50 at the EU summit on 9th & 10th March is unlikely, the Prime Minister’s self-imposed deadline of the end of... 17th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Article 50 is in the Lords’ hands The Government got another step closer to being able to trigger Article 50 before its self-imposed deadline of 31st March. Meanwhile, the latest data suggest that the post referendum drop in the pound... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Uncertainty – the Brexit dog that hasn’t barked A key reason why the UK economy has proved unexpectedly resilient since the vote for Brexit is that the resulting uncertainty has not had the negative effects that many had anticipated. And there are... 6th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Sticking to the timetable on Article 50 The Government moved one step closer to triggering Article 50 this week after MPs overwhelmingly voted in favour of its bill. Meanwhile, the latest economic data suggest that the economy has... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC upbeat on growth but relaxed on inflation The first Bank of England “Super Thursday” of 2017 saw the MPC Minutes and Inflation Report strike a cautiously-optimistic tone. That said, while the economy appears to be coping with Brexit... 2nd February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Dec.) December’s household borrowing figures showed that demand has continued to return to the housing market, following a lull around the referendum, but that consumer credit growth slowed for the first... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Government gets the ball rolling on Brexit bill While the Supreme Court decision won’t prevent Brexit from happening, it has perhaps increased the chance that Theresa May’s timeline for triggering Article 50 will slip and/or that there could be... 27th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Does the Supreme Court decision matter? Today’s decision by the Supreme Court to uphold the High Court’s ruling that the Government must have Parliament’s approval before triggering Article 50 is still significant. In fact, arguably, the... 24th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Pound welcomes May’s Brexit plans The unveiling of the Government’s broad plans for Brexit helped to drive the pound higher this week. However, this probably largely reflects a slight reduction in uncertainty, rather than optimism... 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Six key takeaways from Theresa May’s Brexit plan Today’s speech by PM Theresa May, which set out the Government’s broad objectives ahead of the formal negotiations with the EU, contained little more than what was widely expected. Nonetheless, it did... 17th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Bumpy ride for sterling The pound has suffered another bumpy ride this week, as concerns about the economic impact of a “hard Brexit” have lingered. That said, some of the positive impacts of the lower exchange rate were... 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Still no need to panic about the pound While the latest fall in the pound could potentially push inflation higher than otherwise, it should strengthen the already considerable beneficial effects of a weaker currency too. 10th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Stock market starts 2017 on a high The very beginning of 2017 has not been shy of Brexit-related drama, although none of it appears to have particularly rattled financial markets. This probably reflects the fact that the latest data... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Nov.) November’s household borrowing figures showed that borrowing growth remains strong, despite the Brexit vote, and that the housing market continues to regain its momentum. Admittedly, the small rise in... 4th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Strong spending rests on some shaky foundations The latest Quarterly National Accounts provided further reasons to think that recent rates of spending growth will not be sustained next year. That said, we do not anticipate that a dramatic slowdown... 23rd December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Possibility of “transitional” deal gains further traction There are indications that the Government may be moving away from the recent “soft” Brexit rhetoric this week. But given the growing signs that it is also considering some sort of “transitional”... 23rd December 2016 · 1 min read
