UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Tightening in polls heightens risks The significant narrowing in the Conservatives’ poll lead over Labour has raised the risk of a more fractious Brexit. Meanwhile, comments from the ECB saw the debate over the extent to which UK... 26th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Sterling’s Brexit recovery can go further While the pound could fall again if the economy weakens or Brexit prospects worsen, there are good reasons to think that its recent appreciation can continue. 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Manifestos expose subtle differences on Brexit The release of the Conservative Party and Labour Party manifestos this week exposed some differences in their stances towards Brexit. However, the broad contours of each party’s desired Brexit outcome... 19th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update When will the FTSE’s Brexit rally end? The FTSE 100’s near 20% rise since the EU referendum has endorsed our view that the economic effects of Brexit will be less damaging than many had feared. But there are reasons why the rally might... 17th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Labour would ease the fiscal squeeze significantly If implemented, the Labour manifesto could boost GDP growth – by increasing investment spending – at the cost of higher debt which would potentially result in higher interest rates. 16th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: MPC banks on a smooth departure In the minutes of its latest meeting, the MPC commented that if the economy evolves in line with its forecast, rate hikes would be justified before markets currently expect. But judging by the market... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update UK MPC suggests rates to rise sooner than markets expect May’s Bank of England Inflation Report confirmed that the Monetary Policy Committee is in no hurry to raise interest rates. But it also lent some support to our view that it will begin to tighten... 11th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What does Macron’s victory mean for the UK? Emmanual Macron’s victory in Sunday’s French presidential election is potentially good news for the UK economy and might also provide the best background for the Brexit negotiations. 10th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will consumers remain confident enough to keep on spending? The evidence that consumers are gloomier about the economic outlook but upbeat about their own finances doesn’t sit comfortably together. So which picture of the consumer – unconcerned enough to... 9th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Public spat shows compromise won’t be easy Press reports of growing animosity between the UK and EU have this week given a sense that the prospects for a successful and orderly Brexit have deteriorated. But formal negotiations are not yet... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Mar.) March’s household borrowing figures provide another reason to think that the consumer slowdown shouldn’t be too severe. Moreover, continued strong credit growth shouldn’t panic policymakers into... 4th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Should we be worried about the GDP slowdown? Q1’s GDP figures – which revealed a sharp slowdown in economic growth – have unsurprisingly raised concern that the economy is finally experiencing a major Brexit-related slowdown. However, there are... 2nd May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: EU to confirm negotiating stance Leaders of the EU27 are set to convene in Brussels tomorrow to formally agree Brexit negotiating guidelines. By insisting that sufficient progress is made on a withdrawal agreement before future trade... 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Strength in nominal spending offers some comfort The fall in retail sales volumes in Q1 2017 suggests that the slowdown in consumer spending growth is gathering pace. But the recent strength of nominal spending offers some comfort. Retail sales... 27th April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Markets give snap election the thumbs up The positive response of the pound to the surprise announcement of a snap General Election suggests that a larger Conservative majority, and stability in Government over the Brexit implementation... 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is the pound set for a pre-Brexit rally? The jump in sterling after Theresa May’s surprise announcement of a snap general election has posed the question of whether the pound might defy expectations and rise further as Brexit approaches... 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
