UK Economics Update Can the Treasury-gilt gap widen further? Over the next year, we expect the Fed to hike rates faster than markets expect while the Bank of England keeps policy on hold. If we are right, the gap between US and UK short rates will continue to... 27th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Exit bill to prove key point of contention With the Government set to formally notify the EU of the UK’s wish to leave the bloc next week, some preliminary detail has emerged on how the EU will approach negotiations. It is expected to insist... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Why won’t the MPC soon follow the Fed? Despite higher UK inflation and solid growth, there are good reasons why the MPC will not quickly follow the US Fed in tightening monetary policy. 23rd March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Would an early General Election sap the economy’s strength? Political uncertainty is back on the agenda, with speculation of an early General Election and confirmation that Article 50 will be triggered on March 29th coming on top of the renewed threat of a... 21st March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Sterling weathers call for indy ref 2 In the week Article 50 received Royal Assent, sterling halted its latest decline despite renewed calls for a second Scottish independence referendum. While the referendum announcement coincided with a... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC strikes a more hawkish tone The decision by the Monetary Policy Committee to leave interest rates on hold and the scale of its asset purchases unchanged, at the same time as the US Fed tightened policy again, highlights the... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will Article 50 trigger Brexit pain? While the imminent triggering of Article 50 will bring Brexit a step closer and could prompt a rise in uncertainty, there are still good reasons to expect the economy to remain resilient. 14th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What to make of the renewed bid for Scottish Independence Scotland’s First Minister and SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon’s announcement that she is beginning the process to enact a second referendum on Scottish independence before the UK exits the EU far from... 14th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Article 50 notification set for end of the month The Lords’ amendments to the Article 50 Bill are all but certain to push back the date of notification to the end of the month. Meanwhile, expectations of tighter monetary policy abroad rather than... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Spring Budget does little to change consumer outlook The measures announced in yesterday’s Spring Budget amounted to little and the big picture is still that fiscal austerity will weigh on households’ spending power over the next few years. Meanwhile... 9th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update UK Budget Checklist This checklist is intended to help clients keep track of the key measures and numbers announced during the Chancellor’s Budget at 12.30pm tomorrow and to provide some instant context. 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Pound’s latest drop not a sign of Brexit panic The latest fall in the pound has reflected stronger growth overseas and falling expectations for UK inflation rather increased fears of Brexit damage. Indeed, it could help to cushion the blow of the... 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: How serious is the threat of Scottish independence? Renewed calls for a second referendum on Scottish independence, and the House of Lords’ amendments to the Article 50 Bill are stumbling blocks to Theresa May’s Brexit plans, but we doubt that either... 3rd March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Jan.) January’s UK money and credit figures showed that mortgage approvals have continued on their upward trend, after the lull around last year’s EU referendum, and that consumers may be becoming a little... 1st March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will the UK’s “exit bill” thwart Brexit negotiations? Once Article 50 has been triggered, one of the first things that will be discussed is the UK’s “divorce settlement” – or the degree to which the UK will cover its share of pending EU commitments and... 27th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Net migration from the EU falls after Brexit vote There have been growing signs that some EU nationals are reacting to the vote to leave the EU by either returning to their country of citizenship or by obtaining residency rights in the UK. Meanwhile... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
