UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Small steps, rather than giant leaps Brexit Secretary David Davis’ comments this week that enacting Brexit is more challenging than putting a man on the moon were underlined by a number of key votes in the House of Commons as well as the... 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Consumer spending reliant on saving less While the latest Quarterly National Accounts has raised further questions about the sustainability of consumer spending growth, we don’t think that a dramatic slowdown is in prospect. 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (May) May’s household borrowing figures provide another reason to think that consumer spending growth may have picked up pace in Q2, after a disappointing performance in Q1. But the figures will clearly add... 29th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Consumer credit in the FPC’s sights The publication today of the Financial Stability Report revealed that while the Bank of England’s Financial Policy Committee is fairly sanguine about the resilience of the financial system as a whole... 27th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will the FTSE 100 continue to climb? Our upbeat view on the outlook for the UK economy might suggest we would expect the FTSE 100 to record significant further gains this year and next. But even if the economy remains resilient, there... 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: One year on At the one year anniversary of the UK’s historic vote to leave the EU, the Brexit process is still firmly in its infancy. Although face-to-face negotiations with the EU finally began this week, the... 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Should we worry about consumer credit? Consumers still appear confident enough to borrow in order to sustain spending growth in the face of higher inflation. But how worried should we be that higher household borrowing and debt will... 20th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Government makes a few Brexit concessions With face-to-face talks with the EU set to begin next week, it is still unclear whether or not the General Election result – which clearly weakened Theresa May’s negotiating mandate – will lead to a... 16th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC strikes surprisingly hawkish tone While an interest rate hike in the UK within the next few months still looks unlikely, the hawkish tone of June’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) policy decision and minutes supports our view that... 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is austerity over? While the general election result may prompt the Government to slow down the planned pace of fiscal tightening a bit, it would be wrong to conclude that austerity’s days are numbered. 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will the election really soften Brexit? It has been suggested that Prime Minister Theresa May’s failure to gain an overall majority in last week’s General Election means that that a much softer Brexit could be back on the table. However... 13th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: “Softer” Brexit now more likely, but risks remain The Hung Parliament resulting from the General Election on balance probably increases the chances of a “softer” form of Brexit, although remaining in the single market indefinitely does not appear to... 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Hung Parliament: what happens now? With no party gaining a majority in the General Election, the UK looks set to face a period of uncertainty about the outlook for policy, Brexit and the possibility of another election. It is still... 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update A guide to election night Our Election Preview, published 1st June, contains our detailed analysis of the potential impact of the election. This UK Economics Update focuses on the results process and short-term implications of... 8th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Election Special With less than a week to go until the General Election on 8th June, the polls have continued to narrow and the outcome is less certain than it seemed a few weeks ago. In this special edition of Brexit... 2nd June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Apr.) April’s household borrowing figures provide another reason to think that consumer spending may have picked up pace in Q2, after a disappointing performance in Q1. But they will probably add to... 31st May 2017 · 1 min read
