UK Economics Update Should we be worried about the GDP slowdown? Q1’s GDP figures – which revealed a sharp slowdown in economic growth – have unsurprisingly raised concern that the economy is finally experiencing a major Brexit-related slowdown. However, there are... 2nd May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: EU to confirm negotiating stance Leaders of the EU27 are set to convene in Brussels tomorrow to formally agree Brexit negotiating guidelines. By insisting that sufficient progress is made on a withdrawal agreement before future trade... 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Strength in nominal spending offers some comfort The fall in retail sales volumes in Q1 2017 suggests that the slowdown in consumer spending growth is gathering pace. But the recent strength of nominal spending offers some comfort. Retail sales... 27th April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Markets give snap election the thumbs up The positive response of the pound to the surprise announcement of a snap General Election suggests that a larger Conservative majority, and stability in Government over the Brexit implementation... 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is the pound set for a pre-Brexit rally? The jump in sterling after Theresa May’s surprise announcement of a snap general election has posed the question of whether the pound might defy expectations and rise further as Brexit approaches... 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Has Theresa May gone to the polls just in time? With the economy’s strength set to wane somewhat this year, Theresa May’s gamble to go to the polls to increase the Conservative’s majority may have been just in the nick of time. There is some... 19th April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Snap election won’t derail the economy Theresa May’s surprise announcement of a snap election on 8th June adds another element of nearterm political uncertainty as the UK heads into formal Brexit negotiations. However, we doubt that this... 18th April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: French election highlights negotiation time pressures While the political focus shifted away from Brexit and on to the French presidential election this week, UK labour market data and surveys of exporters suggest that the UK economy has remained... 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update When will the MPC start to reverse QE? The fact that the MPC is unlikely to start to reverse its QE programme for a considerable period supports our view that interest rates will rise sooner and more quickly than is generally expected. 12th April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: May softens stance on immigration Just over a week since the triggering of Article 50 and the PM Theresa May appears to have softened her stance in relation to Brexit. Despite this, markets have pushed back their expectations for the... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Economy’s resilience points to earlier rise in interest rates While the outlook for UK monetary policy is highly uncertain, the economy’s continued resilience suggests that interest rates will rise sooner and more quickly than is generally anticipated. 5th April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Constructive tone to first exchanges In a jam-packed week of landmark political events the Brexit process got underway with both the EU and the UK seemingly approaching negotiations in a constructive mood. 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Consumer spending relying on less saving While the latest Quarterly National Accounts raised further questions about the sustainability of consumer spending growth, we don’t think that a dramatic slowdown is in prospect. Household spending... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Key questions following the triggering of Article 50 The triggering of Article 50 today is a political milestone that brings the UK one important step closer to actually leaving the EU. However, this is still an early step in what is set to be a lengthy... 29th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Feb.) February’s money and credit figures suggest that households’ appetite for debt has taken a bit of a hit, after holding up well following the EU referendum. But we don’t think that borrowing growth... 29th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update The MPC’s sterling conundrum The Monetary Policy Committee might be relieved to see the pound regaining a bit of ground in recent weeks. But it shouldn’t want the exchange rate to rise too far. 28th March 2017 · 1 min read
