UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Stand-off continues This week’s third round of negotiations saw some limited progress. But the overriding sense from yesterday’s press conference was that Britain is still seeking to negotiate outside the format imposed... 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Jul.) July’s household borrowing figures should help to assuage fears that the housing market slowdown is worsening, while cooling consumer credit growth will be welcome news for the Bank of England’s... 30th August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Fading red lines? The UK Government’s stated Brexit “red lines” appear to have faded further judging by the latest batch of position papers. However, the lack of a formal UK position on the financial settlement risks a... 25th August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will accelerating car credit cause a crash? Recent rapid growth in car finance has left the industry looking more vulnerable to a downturn. But this type of lending is a small proportion of total borrowing. And with car finance deals shifting... 21st August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Customs paper overly-optimistic On the face of it, the two further position papers published this week by the Department for Exiting the EU, on Northern Ireland and potential future customs arrangements, point to a fairly soft form... 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Sterling’s slide against the euro likely to be partly reversed In contrast to a number of other forecasters who have suggested that the pound could reach parity with the euro before the end of the year, we think that there are a number of reasons for the pound to... 15th August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Position papers pending Ahead of the publication of the UK Government’s next batch of position papers, there has been little in the way of Brexit developments this week. Meanwhile, the latest economic data was rather mixed... 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will the housing market slowdown weigh on the economy? The recent slowdown in house price growth looks unlikely to develop into outright falls, and as such shouldn’t undermine our relatively upbeat forecasts for consumer spending and investment. 10th August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Investment to shake off recent weakness Much of the focus of the press conference following the Bank of England’s August policy decision and Inflation Report was on the contribution of Brexit to the downgrade of its near term growth... 4th August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Hawks to remain in the minority for a while longer While the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) remained split on whether to increase interest rates at August’s meeting, the hawks are likely to remain in a minority for a while longer yet. Nonetheless, we... 3rd August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Jun.) June’s household borrowing figures provide another reason to think that the consumer slowdown shouldn’t be too severe. But the figures will clearly add to concerns about household debt. 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Transitional agreement increasingly likely The view on both sides of the channel seems to be that agreeing the terms of the UK’s withdrawal will take longer than initially hoped. As a result, a transitional deal allowing freedom of movement... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Why has pay growth slowed? We had expected nominal pay growth to remain pretty sluggish – but not to start slowing! Since this is most likely to have been due to the exchange-rate induced rise in import costs, the slowdown... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Likely sticking points no surprise While the second round of negotiations made little substantive progress towards a final agreement, it did highlight the areas where there is the most work to do. Meanwhile, economic data suggested... 21st July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Government willing to make concessions Comments from Eurosceptic MPs revealing their indignation at paying an “exit bill” to the EU should not be conflated with the Government’s position. Indeed, the Government seems willing to make... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Is the economy succumbing to Brexit worries? The disappointing tone of this week’s survey evidence and hard economic data has raised concern that the economy is now succumbing to Brexit fears. However, there were probably some non-Brexit related... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
