UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: “Softer” Brexit now more likely, but risks remain The Hung Parliament resulting from the General Election on balance probably increases the chances of a “softer” form of Brexit, although remaining in the single market indefinitely does not appear to... 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Hung Parliament: what happens now? With no party gaining a majority in the General Election, the UK looks set to face a period of uncertainty about the outlook for policy, Brexit and the possibility of another election. It is still... 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update A guide to election night Our Election Preview, published 1st June, contains our detailed analysis of the potential impact of the election. This UK Economics Update focuses on the results process and short-term implications of... 8th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Election Special With less than a week to go until the General Election on 8th June, the polls have continued to narrow and the outcome is less certain than it seemed a few weeks ago. In this special edition of Brexit... 2nd June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Apr.) April’s household borrowing figures provide another reason to think that consumer spending may have picked up pace in Q2, after a disappointing performance in Q1. But they will probably add to... 31st May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Tightening in polls heightens risks The significant narrowing in the Conservatives’ poll lead over Labour has raised the risk of a more fractious Brexit. Meanwhile, comments from the ECB saw the debate over the extent to which UK... 26th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Sterling’s Brexit recovery can go further While the pound could fall again if the economy weakens or Brexit prospects worsen, there are good reasons to think that its recent appreciation can continue. 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Manifestos expose subtle differences on Brexit The release of the Conservative Party and Labour Party manifestos this week exposed some differences in their stances towards Brexit. However, the broad contours of each party’s desired Brexit outcome... 19th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update When will the FTSE’s Brexit rally end? The FTSE 100’s near 20% rise since the EU referendum has endorsed our view that the economic effects of Brexit will be less damaging than many had feared. But there are reasons why the rally might... 17th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Labour would ease the fiscal squeeze significantly If implemented, the Labour manifesto could boost GDP growth – by increasing investment spending – at the cost of higher debt which would potentially result in higher interest rates. 16th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: MPC banks on a smooth departure In the minutes of its latest meeting, the MPC commented that if the economy evolves in line with its forecast, rate hikes would be justified before markets currently expect. But judging by the market... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update UK MPC suggests rates to rise sooner than markets expect May’s Bank of England Inflation Report confirmed that the Monetary Policy Committee is in no hurry to raise interest rates. But it also lent some support to our view that it will begin to tighten... 11th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What does Macron’s victory mean for the UK? Emmanual Macron’s victory in Sunday’s French presidential election is potentially good news for the UK economy and might also provide the best background for the Brexit negotiations. 10th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will consumers remain confident enough to keep on spending? The evidence that consumers are gloomier about the economic outlook but upbeat about their own finances doesn’t sit comfortably together. So which picture of the consumer – unconcerned enough to... 9th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Public spat shows compromise won’t be easy Press reports of growing animosity between the UK and EU have this week given a sense that the prospects for a successful and orderly Brexit have deteriorated. But formal negotiations are not yet... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Mar.) March’s household borrowing figures provide another reason to think that the consumer slowdown shouldn’t be too severe. Moreover, continued strong credit growth shouldn’t panic policymakers into... 4th May 2017 · 1 min read
