UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Sep.) September’s household borrowing figures suggest that consumers remain confident enough to continue to borrow in order to smooth their spending against a backdrop of squeezed real incomes. Moreover... 30th October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Tight timetable in focus Comments by the Prime Minister Theresa May and Brexit Secretary David Davis this week have put into focus the tight timeframe in which the terms of the UK’s exit from the EU must be negotiated, and... 27th October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update “Sufficient progress” by December? It was little surprise that the leaders of the EU27 this week decided that “sufficient progress” on the withdrawal issues has not yet been achieved. But there were encouraging signs that this point... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Deal, no deal or no Brexit? The fifth round of Brexit negotiations passed without much progress being made towards a withdrawal agreement, while the Government appears to have stepped up its plans somewhat for coping with a “no... 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Renewed leadership bid could hamper negotiations The prospect of a renewed Conservative Party leadership bid could have a de-stabilising effect on negotiations next week and, if it does happen, could have a material impact on the sort of Brexit that... 6th October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Consumers’ finances more robust The latest Quarterly National Accounts painted households’ finances in a much better light, supporting our view that consumers will continue to ride out the real pay squeeze fairly well. 29th September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update “Sufficient progress” still not made While Theresa May’s speech in Florence appears to have had a positive effect on the Brexit negotiations, it still looks unlikely that “sufficient progress” on the withdrawal agreement will be made by... 29th September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Aug.) August’s household borrowing figures provide another reason to think that consumer spending growth won’t slow too sharply ahead. But the figures will do little to assuage concerns about household debt... 29th September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Mortgage rates are heading back over 3% Mortgage rates are set to move back above 3% by the end of 2019. On its own, a rise in mortgage interest rates on that scale is unlikely to trigger another downturn in house prices. But it will act as... 28th September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will higher interest rates hit consumer confidence? The prospect of the first rise in interest rates in a decade has raised concerns about the impact on the already beleaguered consumer. Indeed, there is clearly a risk that the sheer shock of the first... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update FPC fires a warning shot to banks In today’s Statement, the Bank of England’s Financial Policy Committee (FPC) fired a warning shot to banks over consumer credit, suggesting that banks would need to increase the amount of capital they... 25th September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Unfreezing talks, but kicking the can down the road Prime Minister Theresa May’s much-hyped Florence speech has probably inched the UK closer to having made “sufficient progress” on the withdrawal phase of the negotiations. However, there are still... 22nd September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: All eyes on PM’s Florence speech The fourth round of negotiations have been delayed by a week until after Theresa May’s forthcoming speech in Florence. Both negotiating teams will be hoping that the Prime Minister endorses a... 15th September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC signals rate hike as soon as November The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) gave a pretty clear signal today that it intends to raise interest rates within the next few months. We now expect a 25bp hike in November. 14th September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: EU concerned by UK stance on N. Ireland A position paper on the EU’s approach to Northern Ireland and accompanying statements by Michel Barnier on Thursday highlighted that the EU and the UK will struggle to agree on how to deal with trade... 8th September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will car sales stay stuck in reverse? New car registrations fell again in August, providing a worrying sign that the sector will be a major drag on overall consumer spending growth in the quarters ahead. 6th September 2017 · 1 min read
