UK Economics Update Transitional agreement increasingly likely The view on both sides of the channel seems to be that agreeing the terms of the UK’s withdrawal will take longer than initially hoped. As a result, a transitional deal allowing freedom of movement... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Why has pay growth slowed? We had expected nominal pay growth to remain pretty sluggish – but not to start slowing! Since this is most likely to have been due to the exchange-rate induced rise in import costs, the slowdown... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Likely sticking points no surprise While the second round of negotiations made little substantive progress towards a final agreement, it did highlight the areas where there is the most work to do. Meanwhile, economic data suggested... 21st July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Government willing to make concessions Comments from Eurosceptic MPs revealing their indignation at paying an “exit bill” to the EU should not be conflated with the Government’s position. Indeed, the Government seems willing to make... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Is the economy succumbing to Brexit worries? The disappointing tone of this week’s survey evidence and hard economic data has raised concern that the economy is now succumbing to Brexit fears. However, there were probably some non-Brexit related... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Small steps, rather than giant leaps Brexit Secretary David Davis’ comments this week that enacting Brexit is more challenging than putting a man on the moon were underlined by a number of key votes in the House of Commons as well as the... 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Consumer spending reliant on saving less While the latest Quarterly National Accounts has raised further questions about the sustainability of consumer spending growth, we don’t think that a dramatic slowdown is in prospect. 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (May) May’s household borrowing figures provide another reason to think that consumer spending growth may have picked up pace in Q2, after a disappointing performance in Q1. But the figures will clearly add... 29th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Consumer credit in the FPC’s sights The publication today of the Financial Stability Report revealed that while the Bank of England’s Financial Policy Committee is fairly sanguine about the resilience of the financial system as a whole... 27th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will the FTSE 100 continue to climb? Our upbeat view on the outlook for the UK economy might suggest we would expect the FTSE 100 to record significant further gains this year and next. But even if the economy remains resilient, there... 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: One year on At the one year anniversary of the UK’s historic vote to leave the EU, the Brexit process is still firmly in its infancy. Although face-to-face negotiations with the EU finally began this week, the... 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Should we worry about consumer credit? Consumers still appear confident enough to borrow in order to sustain spending growth in the face of higher inflation. But how worried should we be that higher household borrowing and debt will... 20th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Government makes a few Brexit concessions With face-to-face talks with the EU set to begin next week, it is still unclear whether or not the General Election result – which clearly weakened Theresa May’s negotiating mandate – will lead to a... 16th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC strikes surprisingly hawkish tone While an interest rate hike in the UK within the next few months still looks unlikely, the hawkish tone of June’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) policy decision and minutes supports our view that... 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is austerity over? While the general election result may prompt the Government to slow down the planned pace of fiscal tightening a bit, it would be wrong to conclude that austerity’s days are numbered. 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will the election really soften Brexit? It has been suggested that Prime Minister Theresa May’s failure to gain an overall majority in last week’s General Election means that that a much softer Brexit could be back on the table. However... 13th June 2017 · 1 min read
