UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Nov.) November’s household borrowing figures will help to assuage fears that the slowdown in the housing market is gathering pace. And with consumers’ appetite for unsecured loans remaining strong, this... 4th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Consumer spending resilient While the latest Quarterly National Accounts has raised further questions about the sustainability of consumer spending growth, we think that consumers will continue to ride out the real pay squeeze... 22nd December 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Sufficient progress paves way for transition agreement The EU Council’s decision to sign off “sufficient progress” opens the door to agreeing a transition period, which would see the UK remain in the Customs Union and Single Market until 2021, early next... 15th December 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC gives no hints of another hike As was widely expected, December’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting was a bit of a non-event. However, if we are right in expecting the economy to perform more strongly than the MPC expects, that... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update EU to give green light for phase two of negotiations With the European Commission satisfied that “sufficient progress” has been made on the first phase of the Brexit negotiations, an important milestone on the road to Brexit has been reached. There are... 8th December 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit bill breakthrough is a positive step forward While the UK Government’s revised offer on the financial settlement with the EU is a positive step forwards, it is not sufficient alone to progress negotiations to the next phase. Meanwhile, if... 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is Brexit uncertainty about to lift? Expectations that the growth of the UK economy will slow further in 2018 appear to assume that Brexitrelated uncertainty will have a more damaging impact next year. But there is a growing chance that... 30th November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Oct.) October’s household borrowing figures showed that slowing housing demand has continued to weigh on mortgage approvals. But there were few signs that consumers’ appetite for unsecured loans is fading. 29th November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update FPC gives clean bill of health to banking system The Bank of England’s Financial Policy Committee (FPC) gave a fairly upbeat assessment of the banking system in November’s Financial Stability Report that suggests that the financial sector would... 28th November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Budget provides a little relief to households While the Chancellor gave households something to cheer in last week’s Budget, the big picture is that austerity still has further to run. Moreover, the OBR’s new-found pessimism regarding future... 27th November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update N. Ireland border issue unresolved as time runs short Press reports suggest that the UK will increase its financial offer in a bid to move talks on to phase two at the December EU Council meeting. But the Irish border issue remains unresolved with just... 24th November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update UK Autumn Budget 2017 Checklist This checklist is intended to help clients keep track of the key measures and numbers announced during the Chancellor’s Autumn Budget at 12.30pm Wednesday 22nd November 2017 and provide some instant... 21st November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Little evidence of progress While the Government is yet to be defeated on the European Union Withdrawal Bill, there was little sign of the negotiations approaching “sufficient progress” this week. Given only two weeks remain for... 17th November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Two week window for UK to make “clarifications” In the latest round of negotiations the EU hardened its stance on the sequencing of talks and the “clarifications” it needs from the UK – particularly on Northern Ireland – for “sufficient progress”... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Concessions needed by December David Davis’ appearance in front of the House of Lords’ Select Committee on the European Union provided some clues as to what will be required for the European Council to declare “sufficient progress”... 3rd November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC presses ahead with dovish hike The Monetary Policy Committee’s dovish comments and forecasts accompanying the first rise in interest rates for a decade left the markets anticipating only a very modest pace of monetary policy... 2nd November 2017 · 1 min read
