UK Economics Update Unfreezing talks, but kicking the can down the road Prime Minister Theresa May’s much-hyped Florence speech has probably inched the UK closer to having made “sufficient progress” on the withdrawal phase of the negotiations. However, there are still... 22nd September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: All eyes on PM’s Florence speech The fourth round of negotiations have been delayed by a week until after Theresa May’s forthcoming speech in Florence. Both negotiating teams will be hoping that the Prime Minister endorses a... 15th September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC signals rate hike as soon as November The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) gave a pretty clear signal today that it intends to raise interest rates within the next few months. We now expect a 25bp hike in November. 14th September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: EU concerned by UK stance on N. Ireland A position paper on the EU’s approach to Northern Ireland and accompanying statements by Michel Barnier on Thursday highlighted that the EU and the UK will struggle to agree on how to deal with trade... 8th September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will car sales stay stuck in reverse? New car registrations fell again in August, providing a worrying sign that the sector will be a major drag on overall consumer spending growth in the quarters ahead. 6th September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Stand-off continues This week’s third round of negotiations saw some limited progress. But the overriding sense from yesterday’s press conference was that Britain is still seeking to negotiate outside the format imposed... 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Jul.) July’s household borrowing figures should help to assuage fears that the housing market slowdown is worsening, while cooling consumer credit growth will be welcome news for the Bank of England’s... 30th August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Fading red lines? The UK Government’s stated Brexit “red lines” appear to have faded further judging by the latest batch of position papers. However, the lack of a formal UK position on the financial settlement risks a... 25th August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will accelerating car credit cause a crash? Recent rapid growth in car finance has left the industry looking more vulnerable to a downturn. But this type of lending is a small proportion of total borrowing. And with car finance deals shifting... 21st August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Customs paper overly-optimistic On the face of it, the two further position papers published this week by the Department for Exiting the EU, on Northern Ireland and potential future customs arrangements, point to a fairly soft form... 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Sterling’s slide against the euro likely to be partly reversed In contrast to a number of other forecasters who have suggested that the pound could reach parity with the euro before the end of the year, we think that there are a number of reasons for the pound to... 15th August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Position papers pending Ahead of the publication of the UK Government’s next batch of position papers, there has been little in the way of Brexit developments this week. Meanwhile, the latest economic data was rather mixed... 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will the housing market slowdown weigh on the economy? The recent slowdown in house price growth looks unlikely to develop into outright falls, and as such shouldn’t undermine our relatively upbeat forecasts for consumer spending and investment. 10th August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Investment to shake off recent weakness Much of the focus of the press conference following the Bank of England’s August policy decision and Inflation Report was on the contribution of Brexit to the downgrade of its near term growth... 4th August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Hawks to remain in the minority for a while longer While the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) remained split on whether to increase interest rates at August’s meeting, the hawks are likely to remain in a minority for a while longer yet. Nonetheless, we... 3rd August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Jun.) June’s household borrowing figures provide another reason to think that the consumer slowdown shouldn’t be too severe. But the figures will clearly add to concerns about household debt. 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
