UK Economics Update Latest stress test won’t derail bank lending While the Bank of England’s Financial Policy Committee (FPC) left its annual stress test scenario unchanged, the test will still be a bit more stringent this year for some major UK banks. Nonetheless... 16th March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update UK Spring Statement 2018 Checklist This checklist is intended to help clients keep track of the key economic and fiscal forecasts announced during the Chancellor’s Spring Statement at 12.30pm Tuesday 13th March 2018 and to provide some... 12th March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update EU guidelines pave the way for a “Canada-style” deal Draft EU guidelines on the future relationship between the UK and the EU reiterated that the EU sees a Canada-style Free Trade Agreement as the best possible trading arrangement consistent with the UK... 9th March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will the end of PPI pay-outs hit spending growth? While it is some way off yet, some have argued that the ending of compensation related to mis-sold PPI will remove a valuable support to consumers who are facing falling real wages and higher interest... 7th March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update PM’s speech delivers less cake and more realism On the basis of this week’s developments, an agreement on a transition deal by the March European Council meeting hangs in the balance. Meanwhile, the Brexit vision that the Prime Minister set out on... 2nd March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Jan.) January’s household borrowing figures will help to assuage fears that the slowdown in the housing market is gathering pace. And consumers still appear confident enough to borrow to smooth their... 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Cabinet consensus won’t unlock negotiations The “Canada plus, plus, plus” deal, including single market participation for some sectors, which UK Cabinet ministers reportedly agreed to this week is unlikely to be accepted by the EU in its... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Deadlock in negotiations next week? Given that the UK Government has disagreements with the EU over the scope of the transition deal, and no new solutions to avoiding a hard border on the island of Ireland have been proposed, there is a... 16th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Transition period “not a given” This week saw negotiations resume for the first time since the EU Council agreed in December that talks could move on to a possible transition period. However, UK Government objections to some of the... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC paves the way for a May rate hike The “Super Thursday” releases from the Bank of England support our long-held view that the Monetary Policy Committee would become less dovish as the economy beat expectations. Indeed, we expect the... 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Latest impact assessments tell us nothing new The revelation that the Department for Exiting the EU (DExEU) has produced an assessment of the likely impact of various Brexit options on the economy has dominated the press this week, but does not... 2nd February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Dec.) December’s household borrowing figures revealed a widening divergence between borrowing to fund a house purchase and borrowing to fund other areas of spending. However, we don’t think that... 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Transition deal negotiations about to kick off The EU will publish its directives for negotiating a transitional arrangement on Monday, signalling the start of the next phase of negotiations. The UK Government seems prepared to accept the EU’s... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will stockbuilding weigh on growth again this year? Stockbuilding probably knocked about 0.2pp off GDP growth last year. But there are a number of reasons to think that won’t be repeated, leaving us happy with our above-consensus forecast for GDP... 24th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Does optimism about Brexit explain the pound’s rise? With the rise in the pound to its highest level against the US dollar since the eve of the EU referendum not appearing to be justified by relative interest rate expectations, some have argued that it... 19th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Majority don’t support a second referendum The possibility of a second referendum was again raised this week, but the chances of another vote happening appear slim. Meanwhile, we still expect a transitional deal to be agreed by March. But the... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
