UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Dec.) December’s household borrowing figures revealed a widening divergence between borrowing to fund a house purchase and borrowing to fund other areas of spending. However, we don’t think that... 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Transition deal negotiations about to kick off The EU will publish its directives for negotiating a transitional arrangement on Monday, signalling the start of the next phase of negotiations. The UK Government seems prepared to accept the EU’s... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will stockbuilding weigh on growth again this year? Stockbuilding probably knocked about 0.2pp off GDP growth last year. But there are a number of reasons to think that won’t be repeated, leaving us happy with our above-consensus forecast for GDP... 24th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Does optimism about Brexit explain the pound’s rise? With the rise in the pound to its highest level against the US dollar since the eve of the EU referendum not appearing to be justified by relative interest rate expectations, some have argued that it... 19th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Majority don’t support a second referendum The possibility of a second referendum was again raised this week, but the chances of another vote happening appear slim. Meanwhile, we still expect a transitional deal to be agreed by March. But the... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Nov.) November’s household borrowing figures will help to assuage fears that the slowdown in the housing market is gathering pace. And with consumers’ appetite for unsecured loans remaining strong, this... 4th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Consumer spending resilient While the latest Quarterly National Accounts has raised further questions about the sustainability of consumer spending growth, we think that consumers will continue to ride out the real pay squeeze... 22nd December 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Sufficient progress paves way for transition agreement The EU Council’s decision to sign off “sufficient progress” opens the door to agreeing a transition period, which would see the UK remain in the Customs Union and Single Market until 2021, early next... 15th December 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC gives no hints of another hike As was widely expected, December’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting was a bit of a non-event. However, if we are right in expecting the economy to perform more strongly than the MPC expects, that... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update EU to give green light for phase two of negotiations With the European Commission satisfied that “sufficient progress” has been made on the first phase of the Brexit negotiations, an important milestone on the road to Brexit has been reached. There are... 8th December 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit bill breakthrough is a positive step forward While the UK Government’s revised offer on the financial settlement with the EU is a positive step forwards, it is not sufficient alone to progress negotiations to the next phase. Meanwhile, if... 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is Brexit uncertainty about to lift? Expectations that the growth of the UK economy will slow further in 2018 appear to assume that Brexitrelated uncertainty will have a more damaging impact next year. But there is a growing chance that... 30th November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Oct.) October’s household borrowing figures showed that slowing housing demand has continued to weigh on mortgage approvals. But there were few signs that consumers’ appetite for unsecured loans is fading. 29th November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update FPC gives clean bill of health to banking system The Bank of England’s Financial Policy Committee (FPC) gave a fairly upbeat assessment of the banking system in November’s Financial Stability Report that suggests that the financial sector would... 28th November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Budget provides a little relief to households While the Chancellor gave households something to cheer in last week’s Budget, the big picture is that austerity still has further to run. Moreover, the OBR’s new-found pessimism regarding future... 27th November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update N. Ireland border issue unresolved as time runs short Press reports suggest that the UK will increase its financial offer in a bid to move talks on to phase two at the December EU Council meeting. But the Irish border issue remains unresolved with just... 24th November 2017 · 1 min read
