UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Jul.) July’s household borrowing figures provided signs that consumers’ appetite for unsecured borrowing is waning. But the fact that households remain upbeat about their financial position suggests that... 30th August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will the warm weather spur spending? This summer has been the warmest in more than a decade, prompting speculation that the hot weather might have given an extra boost to consumer spending. In general, though, there is very little... 14th August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Assessing the impact of a trade war on the UK The macroeconomic impact on the UK of the tariffs which the US has already imposed on the EU and of the retaliatory tariffs which the EU has imposed on the US, will be trivial. The threat of... 8th August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit uncertainty could start to weigh more heavily There are still umpteen ways Brexit could play out, meaning that the cloud of uncertainty over the UK could linger for a long time yet. While the UK economy has weathered Brexit and political... 7th August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Market implications of a “no deal” Brexit While we still assume that the UK and the EU will reach some sort of agreement over Brexit before the deadline next spring, there is clearly a significant possibility of no deal. In this scenario, we... 7th August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Public finances doing well despite dip in growth The recent improvement in the public finance figures begs the question of whether the economy is faring better than the official growth figures suggest. However, it is not strong tax receipts driven... 6th August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC starts gradual process of policy normalisation Despite the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC)’s hawkish forecasts accompanying the second rise in interest rates for a decade, markets are still anticipating only a very modest pace of monetary policy... 2nd August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC to beef up forward guidance with neutral rate estimate The Bank of England is expected to publish an estimate of the neutral interest rate (i.e. the level at which rates have neither an expansionary nor a contractionary effect on growth and inflation) for... 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Jun.) June’s rise in mortgage approvals is too small to suggest that a revival in mortgage lending is underway. Meanwhile, the unsecured borrowing figures provide another reason to think that consumer... 30th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How much damage would a Brexit “no deal” cause? Although the more extreme warnings about the short-term impact of a “no-deal” Brexit on the economy are overdone, there is little doubt that it could deal a reasonable blow to GDP growth next year. 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Northern Ireland stalemate raises risk of no deal The UK Government’s Chequers proposals are still broadly intact following a tumultuous week in Parliament. The Prime Minister suggested that the proposals would also solve the Northern Ireland border... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update UK financial markets still banking on a soft Brexit The betting markets are assigning a greater probability to an early general election in the UK in the wake of high-profile resignations in the Conservative Party since the Cabinet met at Chequers on... 10th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Another step towards a “soft” Brexit The proposals expected to come out of the Cabinet meeting at the Prime Minister’s country retreat, Chequers, are unlikely to be accepted by the EU. But the decision to align UK product standards with... 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (May) Housing market activity, and therefore mortgage lending, remains subdued. But growth in unsecured household borrowing maintained its pace in May. And still-solid consumer confidence suggests that it... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update FPC confident that UK banks can cope with Brexit The Financial Policy Committee’s (FPC’s) biannual assessment of financial stability found that the banking sector is in good health, and should be able to withstand a disorderly Brexit. As a result... 27th June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update EU Council to issue warning over slow progress The Government this week managed to avoid giving Parliament the right to direct negotiations were the UK to end up heading towards a “no-deal” Brexit. But next week’s EU Council summit will highlight... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
