UK Economics Update UK financial markets still banking on a soft Brexit The betting markets are assigning a greater probability to an early general election in the UK in the wake of high-profile resignations in the Conservative Party since the Cabinet met at Chequers on... 10th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Another step towards a “soft” Brexit The proposals expected to come out of the Cabinet meeting at the Prime Minister’s country retreat, Chequers, are unlikely to be accepted by the EU. But the decision to align UK product standards with... 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (May) Housing market activity, and therefore mortgage lending, remains subdued. But growth in unsecured household borrowing maintained its pace in May. And still-solid consumer confidence suggests that it... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update FPC confident that UK banks can cope with Brexit The Financial Policy Committee’s (FPC’s) biannual assessment of financial stability found that the banking sector is in good health, and should be able to withstand a disorderly Brexit. As a result... 27th June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update EU Council to issue warning over slow progress The Government this week managed to avoid giving Parliament the right to direct negotiations were the UK to end up heading towards a “no-deal” Brexit. But next week’s EU Council summit will highlight... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC on track for an August hike While the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) stopped short of explicitly committing to a rate hike in August, the hawkish tone of June’s Minutes & Statement suggest that it is pretty likely. 21st June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How worrying is the slowdown in money growth? The recent slowdown in money growth could be taken as evidence that economic growth will weaken further. However, it is not unheard of for economic growth to hold up well even when money growth is... 13th June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Irish border issue looks set to tie Government’s hands The EU has shunned the Government’s backstop proposal for the whole of the UK to remain in the EU’s customs territory at the end of the transition period. It seems to us that this forces the... 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Apr.) Unsecured lending to households rebounded in April, providing some reassurance after the unusually small rise in March. That chimes with other evidence that a consumer revival is in the pipeline. 31st May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Rising oil prices won’t prevent a consumer recovery Fears that the recent rise in oil prices will severely dampen consumer spending are probably somewhat overdone. Indeed, even if oil prices remain at current levels, higher inflation would eat into... 29th May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is the sterling boost over? While the beneficial effects on exports of the pound’s depreciation may now be fading somewhat, it is too early to conclude that the sterling boost to growth is over. 22nd May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Why the MPC won’t fall too far behind the Fed The Monetary Policy Committee’s latest inflation forecasts imply that UK interest rates will remain substantially below US rates for the foreseeable future. But there are reasons why the gap may not... 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC to wait for evidence that slowdown is temporary While the MPC thinks that the economy’s slow start to the year should prove temporary, it sees the costs of waiting a few more months to be sure as being relatively low. As a result, we still expect... 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Key questions about the UK local elections Local elections tend not to be a big deal, at least from an economic perspective. Turnout is typically low, and many voters are swayed by local issues. Nonetheless, given the fragile political... 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Mar.) Unsecured lending to households ground to a halt in March, raising concerns of a sharp pull-back in consumer spending growth. But other indicators suggest that the slowdown in lending will prove... 1st May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Consumers relying on saving less The news on the state of households’ finances shows that recent spending growth has been partly driven by households saving less. But it should not be long before consumer spending is on a firmer... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
