UK Economics Update Slower global growth won’t stop UK rebound Concern that increasing Brexit uncertainty is causing the economy to slow sharply, as indicated by the slide in the PMI survey, look overdone. Indeed, other indicators are less downbeat. And while... 12th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Car emissions tests not a big deal for UK growth in Q3 While new EU emissions tests for cars appear to be responsible for a slowdown in growth in the euro-zone in Q3, we doubt it will have had much impact on UK GDP growth. However, the tests do look... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Autumn Budget package will boost growth (and rates) The fiscal loosening announced in the Autumn Budget has prompted us to raise our forecasts for GDP growth and interest rates. In our base case, which assumes a Brexit deal is secured, we now expect... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC hints rates will rise quicker than markets expect The “Super Thursday” releases from the Bank of England support our view that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will raise interest rates more quickly than markets expect, if a Brexit deal is struck. 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Autumn Budget improves consumer outlook Things are finally looking up for consumers. Not only did yesterday’s Budget provide a welcome boost to households’ finances, but a recovery in real pay growth now appears to be taking root. 30th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update UK Autumn Budget 2018 Checklist This checklist is intended to help clients keep track of the key official forecasts and measures announced during the Chancellor’s Autumn Budget speech at 3.30pm Monday 29th October, and to provide... 29th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Sep.) September’s household borrowing figures provided further signs that consumers are becoming more wary about loading up on unsecured debt. But households remain upbeat about their financial position so... 29th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Theresa May: will she stay or will she go? Although Theresa May succeeded in clinging onto the premiership last week, the possibility of a leadership contest remains a distinct and worrying prospect both for the Brexit negotiations and... 29th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update UK Autumn Budget 2018 - Tax Ready Reckoner This Tax Ready Reckoner illustrates the impact of various tax changes on the public finances, allowing the magnitude of any policy changes announced in the Chancellor’s Budget speech on Monday to be... 26th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Sterling resilient in the face of no deal fears We think that the combination of investors already being heavily net short on sterling, a relatively small increase in the odds of a “no deal” Brexit and the fact that sterling has already fallen... 22nd October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Aug.) August’s household borrowing figures provided further signs that consumers’ appetite for unsecured borrowing is waning. But the slowdown is arguably a welcome development since it eases concerns that... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Some improvement in consumers’ finances The latest Quarterly National Accounts showed that real household incomes and savings have recovered a little from their recent weakness. And with a further improvement in prospect, that should put... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update The bumpy road to Brexit: a primer There are now only six months left to negotiate the deal under which the UK will leave the EU and move into a transition period. This Update lays out five key questions and answers on what still needs... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is Brexit uncertainty hurting the economy? We estimate that Brexit uncertainty has knocked about 0.5 percentage points off GDP growth in the two years since the referendum through its impact on investment. Provided a deal is struck as we... 24th September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Sterling buffeted by growing risk of no deal Theresa May’s combative comments in a surprise press conference earlier today indicated that the chances of a no deal scenario have risen, causing the largest one-day fall in the pound in eleven... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC in no hurry to hike again The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) does not appear to be in a rush to raise interest rates again soon. Indeed, our assumption that a Brexit deal will be struck at the eleventh hour will probably... 13th September 2018 · 1 min read
