UK Economics Update Should Brexit fog clear, risks to rates lie on the upside The thickening Brexit fog meant that the Monetary Policy Committee was always going to leave interest rates at 0.75% today and it looks as though that fog won’t fade for a few months. But should a... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit and the economy: What next? MPs are increasingly pushing for the Government to change tack to break the current political impasse by stepping up “no deal” planning, considering a second referendum, forcing a general election or... 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Student loans won’t tie the Chancellor’s hands Today’s announcement of a change to how student loans will be classified in the public finances increases the risk that the Government misses its main fiscal target. But this shouldn’t cause investors... 17th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Effect of stockpiling on growth will be small We are not convinced by the argument that stockpiling ahead of Brexit will provide a big boost to GDP growth over the coming months and prompt an abrupt fall thereafter. Given that a large proportion... 13th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Leadership challenge triggered: what next? There are a myriad of different ways in which the UK political situation could play out. We can glean from recent markets moves that a disorderly Brexit would probably prompt sterling to fall further... 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Are the surveys overstating the impact of Brexit again? The deterioration in the business surveys in November was probably partly driven by growing fears that the Brexit mess will not be sorted out in time to avoid a no deal. As such, economic activity... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How might markets react if the Brexit deal is rejected? Markets are likely to be relatively nonplussed if Parliament narrowly rejects Theresa May’s Brexit deal. However, a decisive defeat may elicit significant moves in either direction, depending on... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Oct.) Annual consumer credit growth continued to slow in October, reaching a three-year low, providing further evidence that consumers’ appetite for unsecured debt is waning a little. But so long as a... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Government’s Brexit report highlights cost of no deal Not surprisingly, the Government report, published today, on the long-run economic impact of various Brexit scenarios is probably a little too pessimistic about the fallout from a no deal Brexit, but... 28th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit scenarios – a recap This week the Bank of England and HM Treasury will publish forecasts for the economy based on both the “deal” between the UK and the EU agreed on Sunday, and a “no deal, no transition” alternative. As... 27th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What if we don’t leave the EU after all? Recent Brexit developments have increased the chances of a second referendum and the possibility of the UK staying in the EU. The lengthy run-up to a second referendum would cause uncertainty to... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Future Declaration won’t placate the Brexiteers The Political Declaration on the future relationship between the UK and the EU sketches out an “ambitious” Canada-style free trade agreement. However, the absence of a solution to the Northern Ireland... 22nd November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What happens if the Brexit deal is rejected in Parliament? It is possible that Theresa May will persuade enough MPs to back her deal in Parliament, if only by arguing that the alternatives are even worse. But it is far from certain. In this Update, we set out... 21st November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Policy to loosen in a “no deal” Brexit We think that policy makers would move quickly to help the economy to get back on track in the event of a “no deal” Brexit. Despite Mark Carney’s hints to the contrary, the MPC would probably cut... 20th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Chances rise of an “orderly” no deal News that Theresa May could soon face a leadership challenge is the latest twist in the Brexit saga, but even if she survives, the key point is that the chances of her deal being passed by parliament... 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit timer running out The next few weeks of Brexit negotiations will prove critical in determining whether a deal will be wrapped up by Christmas. We would not be surprised if the talks dragged on into the New Year, in... 12th November 2018 · 1 min read
