UK Economics Update Some improvement in consumers’ finances The latest Quarterly National Accounts showed that real household incomes and savings have recovered a little from their recent weakness. And with a further improvement in prospect, that should put... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update The bumpy road to Brexit: a primer There are now only six months left to negotiate the deal under which the UK will leave the EU and move into a transition period. This Update lays out five key questions and answers on what still needs... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is Brexit uncertainty hurting the economy? We estimate that Brexit uncertainty has knocked about 0.5 percentage points off GDP growth in the two years since the referendum through its impact on investment. Provided a deal is struck as we... 24th September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Sterling buffeted by growing risk of no deal Theresa May’s combative comments in a surprise press conference earlier today indicated that the chances of a no deal scenario have risen, causing the largest one-day fall in the pound in eleven... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC in no hurry to hike again The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) does not appear to be in a rush to raise interest rates again soon. Indeed, our assumption that a Brexit deal will be struck at the eleventh hour will probably... 13th September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Jul.) July’s household borrowing figures provided signs that consumers’ appetite for unsecured borrowing is waning. But the fact that households remain upbeat about their financial position suggests that... 30th August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will the warm weather spur spending? This summer has been the warmest in more than a decade, prompting speculation that the hot weather might have given an extra boost to consumer spending. In general, though, there is very little... 14th August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Assessing the impact of a trade war on the UK The macroeconomic impact on the UK of the tariffs which the US has already imposed on the EU and of the retaliatory tariffs which the EU has imposed on the US, will be trivial. The threat of... 8th August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit uncertainty could start to weigh more heavily There are still umpteen ways Brexit could play out, meaning that the cloud of uncertainty over the UK could linger for a long time yet. While the UK economy has weathered Brexit and political... 7th August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Market implications of a “no deal” Brexit While we still assume that the UK and the EU will reach some sort of agreement over Brexit before the deadline next spring, there is clearly a significant possibility of no deal. In this scenario, we... 7th August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Public finances doing well despite dip in growth The recent improvement in the public finance figures begs the question of whether the economy is faring better than the official growth figures suggest. However, it is not strong tax receipts driven... 6th August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC starts gradual process of policy normalisation Despite the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC)’s hawkish forecasts accompanying the second rise in interest rates for a decade, markets are still anticipating only a very modest pace of monetary policy... 2nd August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC to beef up forward guidance with neutral rate estimate The Bank of England is expected to publish an estimate of the neutral interest rate (i.e. the level at which rates have neither an expansionary nor a contractionary effect on growth and inflation) for... 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Jun.) June’s rise in mortgage approvals is too small to suggest that a revival in mortgage lending is underway. Meanwhile, the unsecured borrowing figures provide another reason to think that consumer... 30th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How much damage would a Brexit “no deal” cause? Although the more extreme warnings about the short-term impact of a “no-deal” Brexit on the economy are overdone, there is little doubt that it could deal a reasonable blow to GDP growth next year. 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Northern Ireland stalemate raises risk of no deal The UK Government’s Chequers proposals are still broadly intact following a tumultuous week in Parliament. The Prime Minister suggested that the proposals would also solve the Northern Ireland border... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
