UK Economics Update MPC follows the Fed, but may ultimately go it alone The Bank of England today emulated the Fed by leaving interest rates on hold, sounding more dovish and hinting that fewer rate hikes are in the pipeline. But if we are right in thinking that GDP... 7th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Falls in overseas PMIs a concern for the UK It’s possible that the falls in the activity PMIs in January are overstating the extent of the Brexit-related weakening in actual GDP growth. However, the fact that the UK PMIs haven’t fallen further... 6th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Dec.) The uncertainty around Brexit may have weighed on household borrowing in December. But stronger finances should allow households to continue to spend even if borrowing remains subdued. 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Parliament votes on May's Brexit "Plan B" Support for Brady’s Brexit amendment in the House of Commons this evening is good result for Theresa May but is arguably not the best news for the near-term outlook for the economy and the pound as it... 29th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How are UK markets positioned for Brexit and the global slowdown? In this Focus, we consider how sterling, Gilts and UK equities will be affected by the outcome of negotiations over Brexit and the global economic slowdown that we are anticipating. Our judgement is... 29th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update The ins and outs of delaying Brexit With 60 days to go and no deal agreed, it looks increasingly likely that Brexit will be delayed beyond 29th March. This Update answers seven questions on how Brexit could be delayed by extending the... 28th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Prime Minister’s sets out Brexit “Plan B” The Prime Minister’s “Plan B” is remarkably similar to Plan A, which Parliament rejected less than a week ago, so it doesn’t appear to change the near-term outlook for the economy. In that regard... 21st January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What might a “soft” Brexit look like? With Prime Minister Theresa May now holding cross-party talks, the chances have risen of a “soft” Brexit, resulting in the UK retaining closer ties with the EU than her defeated deal would have... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update When will the economy get a Brexit boost? The overwhelming defeat of the Brexit deal in Parliament last night increases the chances of the economy performing along the lines of our “fudge and delay” scenario, in which GDP growth rebounds in... 16th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Meaningful Vote on May’s Brexit Deal The resounding defeat of May’s Brexit deal in Parliament by a huge 230 votes this evening is a very bad result for the Prime Minister but could prove to be a good result for the near-term outlook for... 15th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update A meaningful vote for sterling Either a narrow or a heavy defeat in Parliament’s meaningful vote on Theresa May’s Brexit deal tonight would probably prompt the pound to rise. An inconclusive moderate defeat would arguably be the... 15th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit: what happens next? In this Update we set out what might happen with Brexit over the coming days and months. We have already illustrated how the various Brexit outcomes would influence the economy and financial markets... 14th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Our new economic forecasts in various Brexit outcomes Given the huge and growing uncertainty surrounding Brexit, we are now placing much more emphasis on three forecasts for the economy that are based on different Brexit outcomes. The key point, though... 10th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Consumers less willing, rather than less able to spend It looks as though the festive period was fairly underwhelming for the retail sector. But Christmas sales don’t tend to set the tone for the next year, and we think the weakness is mainly due to... 8th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Nov.) The uncertainty hanging over the economy prevented households from committing to much unsecured or mortgage borrowing in November. But at least there is still little sign that they have decided to... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit concerns weighing on spending Brexit concerns may weigh more heavily on consumer spending over the next few quarters. But a further improvement in real earnings growth should put households’ finances on a more sustainable footing... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
