UK Economics Update Which taxes could rise after the election? Whoever wins the general election on 4th July will have three main choices when it comes to spending and taxes. First, the new government could change the fiscal rules to give itself more fiscal space... 5th June 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update Smaller and slower falls in inflation and interest rates We still think inflation will fall faster than the Bank of England is expecting, but in the light of April’s CPI release we now expect the downward trend to be slower and smaller. As a result, we have... 23rd May 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update Migration is preventing the supply of labour from shrinking Putting the politics aside, the high number of migrants coming to the UK for work is the main reason why the number of people willing and able to work isn’t shrinking. 23rd May 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update What will the July general election mean for the economy? The general election on Thursday 4th July, which the Prime Minister announced today, may usher in a new political era but it is unlikely to lead to a dramatically different economic outlook. The... 22nd May 2024 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update What the latest US tariffs mean for the global economy We held an online Drop-In session today to discuss the Biden administration’s new tariffs on goods from China. This Update answers several of the questions that we received about the direct effects of... 15th May 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Update BoE may cut rates in June and reduce them to 3.00% next year While leaving interest rates at 5.25% today as widely expected, the Bank of England gave the impression that it is close to cutting interest rates and also hinted that rates may need to fall further... 9th May 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Looser labour market may reduce foreign-born employment Foreign-born workers have been entirely responsible for the post-pandemic recovery in employment. But a gradual rise in labour market participation and a moderation in net migration may mean the share... 25th April 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update Fiscal Headroom Monitor: Limited scope for tax cuts If sustained, the recent rises in market interest rate expectations and gilt yields may mean that the Chancellor has only around £5bn of fiscal headroom, down from £8.9bn in the March Budget, with... 23rd April 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Rise in job vacancies a bigger worry than fall in employment As the plunge in employment in Q1 is probably a response to the recession last year, employment will probably soon rebound now that the economy is growing again. The real risk is a rebound in job... 16th April 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update The risks to inflation posed by energy prices Our analysis shows that for CPI inflation to get stuck above 2.0% it would require oil prices and UK wholesale gas prices to rise to $110 per barrel and 150 pence per therm respectively. And for CPI... 15th April 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update Bernanke puts the boot in, but BoE won’t project interest rates Ben Bernanke didn’t pull any punches in his review of the Bank of England’s forecasting and communications and recommended a full revamp of the Bank’s main forecasting model, using alternative... 12th April 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update The drag on credit from higher rates continues to fade The Bank of England’s Q1 Credit Conditions Survey provides further evidence that the drag on activity from high interest rates is starting to fade. Looser credit conditions will soon aid the economic... 11th April 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Can the BoE cut rates earlier and faster than the Fed? Even if the US Federal Reserve leaves its policy rate unchanged for longer than we expect, our forecast that inflation in the UK will be lower than in the US suggests this won’t prevent the Bank of... 11th April 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Update BoE should start publishing interest rate projections The Bernanke review of the Bank of England’s forecasting and communications will probably recommend the Bank illustrates the risks around its forecasts using alternative scenarios rather than fan... 8th April 2024 · 7 mins read
Climate Economics Update Governments can accelerate green jobs shift While the number of “green” jobs in the UK rose strongly in 2022, it’s worth noting that green workers were still outnumbered by estate agents! Market forces are facilitating the transition to a... 2nd April 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Slight dovish tilt, and BoE will become more dovish before long With the Bank of England striking a slightly more dovish tone whilst keeping interest rates at 5.25% and inflation likely to fall further and faster than the Bank expects, we still think a rate cut in... 21st March 2024 · 3 mins read
