UK Economics Update Brexit: what happens next? In this Update we set out what might happen with Brexit over the coming days and months. We have already illustrated how the various Brexit outcomes would influence the economy and financial markets... 14th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Our new economic forecasts in various Brexit outcomes Given the huge and growing uncertainty surrounding Brexit, we are now placing much more emphasis on three forecasts for the economy that are based on different Brexit outcomes. The key point, though... 10th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Consumers less willing, rather than less able to spend It looks as though the festive period was fairly underwhelming for the retail sector. But Christmas sales don’t tend to set the tone for the next year, and we think the weakness is mainly due to... 8th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Nov.) The uncertainty hanging over the economy prevented households from committing to much unsecured or mortgage borrowing in November. But at least there is still little sign that they have decided to... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit concerns weighing on spending Brexit concerns may weigh more heavily on consumer spending over the next few quarters. But a further improvement in real earnings growth should put households’ finances on a more sustainable footing... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Should Brexit fog clear, risks to rates lie on the upside The thickening Brexit fog meant that the Monetary Policy Committee was always going to leave interest rates at 0.75% today and it looks as though that fog won’t fade for a few months. But should a... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit and the economy: What next? MPs are increasingly pushing for the Government to change tack to break the current political impasse by stepping up “no deal” planning, considering a second referendum, forcing a general election or... 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Student loans won’t tie the Chancellor’s hands Today’s announcement of a change to how student loans will be classified in the public finances increases the risk that the Government misses its main fiscal target. But this shouldn’t cause investors... 17th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Effect of stockpiling on growth will be small We are not convinced by the argument that stockpiling ahead of Brexit will provide a big boost to GDP growth over the coming months and prompt an abrupt fall thereafter. Given that a large proportion... 13th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Leadership challenge triggered: what next? There are a myriad of different ways in which the UK political situation could play out. We can glean from recent markets moves that a disorderly Brexit would probably prompt sterling to fall further... 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Are the surveys overstating the impact of Brexit again? The deterioration in the business surveys in November was probably partly driven by growing fears that the Brexit mess will not be sorted out in time to avoid a no deal. As such, economic activity... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How might markets react if the Brexit deal is rejected? Markets are likely to be relatively nonplussed if Parliament narrowly rejects Theresa May’s Brexit deal. However, a decisive defeat may elicit significant moves in either direction, depending on... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Oct.) Annual consumer credit growth continued to slow in October, reaching a three-year low, providing further evidence that consumers’ appetite for unsecured debt is waning a little. But so long as a... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Government’s Brexit report highlights cost of no deal Not surprisingly, the Government report, published today, on the long-run economic impact of various Brexit scenarios is probably a little too pessimistic about the fallout from a no deal Brexit, but... 28th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit scenarios – a recap This week the Bank of England and HM Treasury will publish forecasts for the economy based on both the “deal” between the UK and the EU agreed on Sunday, and a “no deal, no transition” alternative. As... 27th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What if we don’t leave the EU after all? Recent Brexit developments have increased the chances of a second referendum and the possibility of the UK staying in the EU. The lengthy run-up to a second referendum would cause uncertainty to... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
