UK Economics Update The implications for the economy of a delay to Brexit The length of any delay to Brexit beyond 29th March could have a fairly large bearing on the performance of the economy and the path taken by official interest rates. A delay of 12 months or more... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Vote on Delaying Brexit The decision by Parliament to ask the EU to delay Brexit beyond 29 th March doesn’t completely rule out a no deal, but it does diminish the downside risk to the economy and increases the chances of a... 14th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Vote on a No Deal Brexit The indication by Parliament tonight that it wants to avoid a no deal Brexit will be welcomed by the financial markets as it reduces the chances of the weakest scenario for the economy, although not... 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Second Vote on PM’s Brexit Deal The defeat in Parliament of May’s Brexit deal tonight for a second time increases the downside risks to the economy by prolonging the uncertainty and leaving a no deal a possibility. At least January... 12th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update 3 weeks to Brexit: Decision time? A series of votes this week might finally see Parliament make a decision on Brexit. Equally, Parliament could vote against all the options, leaving little time for a resolution to be reached before... 11th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update UK Spring Statement 2019 Checklist This checklist helps clients keep track of the key official forecasts announced during the Chancellor’s Spring Statement speech at 12.30pm on Wednesday 13th March and to provide some instant context. 11th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Stockpiling to help Q1 GDP growth, but not by much There is increasing survey evidence that businesses are stockpiling significant amounts of goods ahead of Brexit, which will probably provide some support to economic growth in Q1. But given that a... 7th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC won’t ignore decent pay growth forever One reason why we think the Monetary Policy Committee will raise interest rates further than most forecasters expect – assuming a Brexit resolution is reached – is decent pay growth. We think it will... 4th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Jan.) The solid increase in unsecured household borrowing in January suggests that the UK’s scheduled departure from the EU and concerns of a disorderly exit were not causing consumers or lenders to become... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update The knowns and the unknowns of Brexit This Update cuts through the Brexit quagmire by highlighting four things we now know about Brexit, four things we don’t, and four implications for the economy and the financial markets. 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Next suite of Brexit votes announced The sharp rise in the pound to $1.32/$ and to a two-year high of €1.16/£ this morning is due to two developments on Brexit that appear to reduce the chances of the UK leaving the EU without a deal on... 26th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update No easy choice on no deal tariffs The Government has the unenviable choice of deciding whether households or firms should bear the brunt of higher tariffs in a no deal Brexit. It will probably opt to expose some firms to more external... 26th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit: A pivotal week for the economy and the pound By significantly increasing or decreasing the chances of a no deal Brexit, this week could prove pivotal for the economy and the pound. 25th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update The policy response to a no deal Brexit As demand and supply would both drop after a no deal Brexit, it’s not obvious how policy should respond. But our view that the drop in demand would last longer than any fall in supply suggests the... 18th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Another vote on the PM’s Brexit strategy The real Brexit showdown was always expected to take place on 27th February, but if anything this afternoon’s votes in Parliament will add to the current downward pressure on the pound as they have... 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Cracks appearing in the foundations of labour market Until recently the labour market had seemed to be immune to the Brexit uncertainty which has hampered other sectors of the economy, but there are signs that Brexit is now starting to affect the labour... 13th February 2019 · 1 min read
