UK Economics Update No easy choice on no deal tariffs The Government has the unenviable choice of deciding whether households or firms should bear the brunt of higher tariffs in a no deal Brexit. It will probably opt to expose some firms to more external... 26th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit: A pivotal week for the economy and the pound By significantly increasing or decreasing the chances of a no deal Brexit, this week could prove pivotal for the economy and the pound. 25th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update The policy response to a no deal Brexit As demand and supply would both drop after a no deal Brexit, it’s not obvious how policy should respond. But our view that the drop in demand would last longer than any fall in supply suggests the... 18th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Another vote on the PM’s Brexit strategy The real Brexit showdown was always expected to take place on 27th February, but if anything this afternoon’s votes in Parliament will add to the current downward pressure on the pound as they have... 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Cracks appearing in the foundations of labour market Until recently the labour market had seemed to be immune to the Brexit uncertainty which has hampered other sectors of the economy, but there are signs that Brexit is now starting to affect the labour... 13th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC follows the Fed, but may ultimately go it alone The Bank of England today emulated the Fed by leaving interest rates on hold, sounding more dovish and hinting that fewer rate hikes are in the pipeline. But if we are right in thinking that GDP... 7th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Falls in overseas PMIs a concern for the UK It’s possible that the falls in the activity PMIs in January are overstating the extent of the Brexit-related weakening in actual GDP growth. However, the fact that the UK PMIs haven’t fallen further... 6th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Dec.) The uncertainty around Brexit may have weighed on household borrowing in December. But stronger finances should allow households to continue to spend even if borrowing remains subdued. 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Parliament votes on May's Brexit "Plan B" Support for Brady’s Brexit amendment in the House of Commons this evening is good result for Theresa May but is arguably not the best news for the near-term outlook for the economy and the pound as it... 29th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How are UK markets positioned for Brexit and the global slowdown? In this Focus, we consider how sterling, Gilts and UK equities will be affected by the outcome of negotiations over Brexit and the global economic slowdown that we are anticipating. Our judgement is... 29th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update The ins and outs of delaying Brexit With 60 days to go and no deal agreed, it looks increasingly likely that Brexit will be delayed beyond 29th March. This Update answers seven questions on how Brexit could be delayed by extending the... 28th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Prime Minister’s sets out Brexit “Plan B” The Prime Minister’s “Plan B” is remarkably similar to Plan A, which Parliament rejected less than a week ago, so it doesn’t appear to change the near-term outlook for the economy. In that regard... 21st January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What might a “soft” Brexit look like? With Prime Minister Theresa May now holding cross-party talks, the chances have risen of a “soft” Brexit, resulting in the UK retaining closer ties with the EU than her defeated deal would have... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update When will the economy get a Brexit boost? The overwhelming defeat of the Brexit deal in Parliament last night increases the chances of the economy performing along the lines of our “fudge and delay” scenario, in which GDP growth rebounds in... 16th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Meaningful Vote on May’s Brexit Deal The resounding defeat of May’s Brexit deal in Parliament by a huge 230 votes this evening is a very bad result for the Prime Minister but could prove to be a good result for the near-term outlook for... 15th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update A meaningful vote for sterling Either a narrow or a heavy defeat in Parliament’s meaningful vote on Theresa May’s Brexit deal tonight would probably prompt the pound to rise. An inconclusive moderate defeat would arguably be the... 15th January 2019 · 1 min read
