UK Economics Update What do the ONS “Faster Indicators” tell us? The widespread use of digital technology should eventually make it possible to read how the economy is faring earlier and more accurately. The “Faster Indicators” released for the first time by the... 15th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will weak investment undermine future growth? The recent Brexit-related fall in investment won’t be a big barrier to an eventual rebound in GDP growth. After all, investment hasn’t fallen by much and in the near term how efficiently capital is... 15th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update New Brexit deadline, new forecasts The second delay to Brexit, to 31st October 2019, and developments overseas have altered the assumptions that underpin our UK economic forecasts. As such, we have tweaked those forecasts. The main... 11th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Second delay to Brexit The EU’s decision in the early hours of Thursday morning to grant the UK a second delay to Brexit, this time for six months until 31 October 2019, removes any remaining risk of a no deal Brexit on... 11th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What would happen if there was a no deal Brexit? We are not forecasting a no deal Brexit on Friday. But Brexit has a tendency to bring the unexpected and a no deal is still the default. What’s more, although it may be low risk, it would be high... 9th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit: A guide to this week With only four full days to go until the UK is due to leave the EU at 11pm on Friday 12th April, this week is potentially crucial. Of course, it’s impossible to know with Brexit whether what looks... 8th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Would a general election help or hinder? With Brexit gridlocked, the chances of a general election appear to be rising. Indeed, after the third defeat of her Brexit deal, Theresa May said that “I fear we are reaching the limits of the... 2nd April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Second Round of Indicative Votes on Brexit The inability of Parliament to reach a consensus on a Brexit outcome in tonight’s second round of indicative votes leaves the economy and the financial markets in limbo and Parliament in one hell of a... 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Parliament’s Third Vote on May’s Brexit Deal The rejection of May’s Brexit deal by 58 votes means with two weeks and eight hours to go until the UK is due to leave the EU there is still no clear path for Brexit itself, the economy and the... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update No sign of Brexit panic There are some signs that households are saving more, possibly in response to concerns about Brexit, but consumers aren’t panicking. And a higher saving rate now could lead to a more significant... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Should we blame Brexit or the global economy? While everyone knows that Brexit explains a big part of the slowdown in GDP growth in recent years, it’s less widely accepted that the global economy needs to take a lot of the blame too. So while... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Delay: What’s new and what’s not? The delay granted by the EU last night has pushed back Brexit by at least two weeks, from 29th March to 12th April, but four options remain on the table – deal, no deal, no Brexit or another delay. So... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit decision will stir the MPC one way or another How Brexit pans out will dictate the direction and timing of the next move in interest rates, so it was unsurprising that the Monetary Policy Committee kept a low profile today by voting unanimously... 21st March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Explaining weak investment and strong employment The current divergence between weak business investment growth and strong employment growth won’t last as it’s largely due to the uncertainty caused by Brexit. If there’s a no deal Brexit, both will... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What next for business investment? What happens to business investment next depends on Brexit. But in this Update, we estimate how much has been lost, how much will come back and when. The main message is that some boost is in the... 18th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Next big leg up in sterling most likely after 29th March Although sterling could continue its ascent this week if PM May can get closer to squeezing her deal through Parliament, our best guess is that the next big leg up in the currency will occur after... 18th March 2019 · 1 min read
