UK Economics Update What would a Labour government mean for the economy? There is a wide range of plausible outcomes for the economy if the Labour Party were to win a general election. But our inkling is that the most likely result would be a moderately weaker economy than... 3rd September 2019 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update What to watch as Parliament returns with a bang The events in Parliament over the next week and a half will be crucial in determining whether Brexit will be delayed beyond 31st October, whether there’s an election or whether there is a big step up... 2nd September 2019 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update How does a Brexit deadline influence GDP growth? The surge and contraction in GDP over the first half of the year can be blamed on the original 29th March Brexit deadline. While we expect a similar pattern in Q3/Q4 due to the current 31st October... 29th August 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Suspending Parliament raises the chances of no deal The Prime Minister’s decision to suspend Parliament from sometime in the second week of September until 14th October increases the downside risks to the economy and the pound by decreasing the chances... 28th August 2019 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update The retail surveys: leading or misleading? The weakness in the retail surveys has led some to question whether the consumer sector will succumb to the malaise that has taken hold in the manufacturing sector. But we are sceptical the consumer... 21st August 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Will manufacturing drag the economy into recession? While much of the sharp contraction in manufacturing in the second quarter can be put down to Brexit distortions, a meaningful recovery is unlikely given the ongoing struggles of global manufacturing... 19th August 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update What to make of the inverted gilt yield curve The inversion of the yield curve has stoked concerns about the possibility of an imminent recession, if the UK is not already in one. However, even though the downside risks to the economy have... 15th August 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Potential no deal flashpoints We probably won’t know for sure if the UK is heading for a no deal Brexit until the moment it actually happens, which would be at 11.00pm on 31st October 2019. But there are a number of keys dates in... 8th August 2019 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Update Eyeing up no more than one rate hike Much like the Fed, the Monetary Policy Committee today blamed a lot of its more downbeat assessment of the outlook on the global economy. But unlike the Fed, the MPC still thinks it will probably need... 1st August 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Will the MPC follow the global trend and cut interest rates? There has been mounting speculation that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will join the global loosening cycle by cutting interest rates. We think it will if there is a no deal Brexit. But if there... 31st July 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update How low could the pound go? Our estimates suggest that if a no deal Brexit was fully priced into the market the pound would fall from $1.22 (€1.09) now to about $1.15 (€1.05) or a little lower. 30th July 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Spending on cars puts brakes on consumption growth Spending on cars has fallen sharply since the EU referendum, and unless a Brexit deal is agreed we suspect that it will remain a drag on consumer spending growth for a few years yet. 29th July 2019 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Fiscal rules are made to be broken Any spending spree by the new administration will probably be accompanied by a rise in borrowing, which could breach the current fiscal rule, especially if there is a no deal Brexit. However, fiscal... 24th July 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update New Prime Minister: Brace for turbulence Despite his hard-line stance on the campaign trail, there is no way of knowing how Boris Johnson will handle Brexit once he becomes Prime Minister tomorrow. But it’s going to be turbulent and the... 23rd July 2019 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Pick your own Brexit forecast As long-term clients will know, we have been publishing different forecasts for the economy based on two different Brexit outcomes, “deal on 31st October” and “no deal on 31st October”. We are now... 1st July 2019 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Update And then there were two The outlook for the economy should be similar with either Boris Johnson or Jeremy Hunt at the helm. After all, both have committed to loosening fiscal policy. And although both are willing to leave... 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
