UK Economics Update General hawkish message from the MPC Even after the announcement of the six-month Brexit delay, there was never much chance that the MPC would raise interest rates from its current rate of 0.75% with the possibility of a no deal Brexit... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will firms pass on rises in labour costs? With CPI inflation still subdued, firms’ profit margins appear to have borne the brunt of the recent rises in wage costs. However, we suspect that firms will pass on rising costs to consumers in time... 1st May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Shying away from borrowing to spend on big items The subdued rise in borrowing in March may be because Brexit has sapped households’ desire to borrow to buy big items. At the aggregate level, low interest rates mean that debt is still manageable. 1st May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update An ageing population won’t stop growth in its tracks An ageing population should have dragged down participation in the labour force sharply over the past decade, but falling economic inactivity, particularly amongst women, has meant that the... 29th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Does a change in the BoE Governor matter? While the next Governor of the Bank of England may change lots of things within the Bank, the economic data will remain the biggest driver of monetary policy. And if Labour won the next general... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What do the ONS “Faster Indicators” tell us? The widespread use of digital technology should eventually make it possible to read how the economy is faring earlier and more accurately. The “Faster Indicators” released for the first time by the... 15th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will weak investment undermine future growth? The recent Brexit-related fall in investment won’t be a big barrier to an eventual rebound in GDP growth. After all, investment hasn’t fallen by much and in the near term how efficiently capital is... 15th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update New Brexit deadline, new forecasts The second delay to Brexit, to 31st October 2019, and developments overseas have altered the assumptions that underpin our UK economic forecasts. As such, we have tweaked those forecasts. The main... 11th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Second delay to Brexit The EU’s decision in the early hours of Thursday morning to grant the UK a second delay to Brexit, this time for six months until 31 October 2019, removes any remaining risk of a no deal Brexit on... 11th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What would happen if there was a no deal Brexit? We are not forecasting a no deal Brexit on Friday. But Brexit has a tendency to bring the unexpected and a no deal is still the default. What’s more, although it may be low risk, it would be high... 9th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit: A guide to this week With only four full days to go until the UK is due to leave the EU at 11pm on Friday 12th April, this week is potentially crucial. Of course, it’s impossible to know with Brexit whether what looks... 8th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Would a general election help or hinder? With Brexit gridlocked, the chances of a general election appear to be rising. Indeed, after the third defeat of her Brexit deal, Theresa May said that “I fear we are reaching the limits of the... 2nd April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Second Round of Indicative Votes on Brexit The inability of Parliament to reach a consensus on a Brexit outcome in tonight’s second round of indicative votes leaves the economy and the financial markets in limbo and Parliament in one hell of a... 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Parliament’s Third Vote on May’s Brexit Deal The rejection of May’s Brexit deal by 58 votes means with two weeks and eight hours to go until the UK is due to leave the EU there is still no clear path for Brexit itself, the economy and the... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update No sign of Brexit panic There are some signs that households are saving more, possibly in response to concerns about Brexit, but consumers aren’t panicking. And a higher saving rate now could lead to a more significant... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Should we blame Brexit or the global economy? While everyone knows that Brexit explains a big part of the slowdown in GDP growth in recent years, it’s less widely accepted that the global economy needs to take a lot of the blame too. So while... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
