UK Economics Update The risks to inflation posed by energy prices Our analysis shows that for CPI inflation to get stuck above 2.0% it would require oil prices and UK wholesale gas prices to rise to $110 per barrel and 150 pence per therm respectively. And for CPI... 15th April 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update Bernanke puts the boot in, but BoE won’t project interest rates Ben Bernanke didn’t pull any punches in his review of the Bank of England’s forecasting and communications and recommended a full revamp of the Bank’s main forecasting model, using alternative... 12th April 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update The drag on credit from higher rates continues to fade The Bank of England’s Q1 Credit Conditions Survey provides further evidence that the drag on activity from high interest rates is starting to fade. Looser credit conditions will soon aid the economic... 11th April 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Can the BoE cut rates earlier and faster than the Fed? Even if the US Federal Reserve leaves its policy rate unchanged for longer than we expect, our forecast that inflation in the UK will be lower than in the US suggests this won’t prevent the Bank of... 11th April 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Update BoE should start publishing interest rate projections The Bernanke review of the Bank of England’s forecasting and communications will probably recommend the Bank illustrates the risks around its forecasts using alternative scenarios rather than fan... 8th April 2024 · 7 mins read
Climate Economics Update Governments can accelerate green jobs shift While the number of “green” jobs in the UK rose strongly in 2022, it’s worth noting that green workers were still outnumbered by estate agents! Market forces are facilitating the transition to a... 2nd April 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Slight dovish tilt, and BoE will become more dovish before long With the Bank of England striking a slightly more dovish tone whilst keeping interest rates at 5.25% and inflation likely to fall further and faster than the Bank expects, we still think a rate cut in... 21st March 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update April’s rise in minimum wage will keep the BoE on alert We doubt the big rise in the minimum wage in April will prevent wage growth from falling faster this year than the Bank of England has forecast. But the clear risk is that it supports wage growth and... 11th March 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update Stickiest part of services inflation may soon worry BoE less Our view that the Bank of England will become less concerned by the most persistent part of services CPI inflation suggests that it will cut interest rates in the summer, perhaps in June. But the risk... 4th March 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update The Times: Why 99 per cent mortgages will make the housing crisis worse A version of this report was originally published as an opinion piece in The Times on 28th February 2024. 28th February 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Spring Budget 2024 Checklist This is an updated checklist which takes into account our latest expectations for the Spring Budget. The checklist helps clients keep track of the key policies and forecasts announced during the... 28th February 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update The implications of different combos of Prime Minister & President The outlook for the UK economy is unlikely to be very different depending on which of the possible combinations of UK Prime Ministers and US Presidents this year’s elections deliver. Even so, there... 26th February 2024 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Update Lower unemployment rate raises risk of later rate cuts The news this morning that the unemployment rate is lower than previously thought increases the chances that interest rate cuts start a little later and are slower. 5th February 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Rate cuts may come sooner than the BoE implies While leaving interest rates at 5.25% for the fourth meeting in a row today, the Bank of England sent a signal that the next move will be a cut, but it pushed back strongly against the idea that rates... 1st February 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Fiscal Headroom Monitor: More room for tax cuts Our new Fiscal Headroom Monitor uses a simplified version of the Office for Budget Responsibility’s model to estimate how changes in market interest rate expectations and gilt yields are influencing... 25th January 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update When one MPC member turns, the herd quickly follows History suggests that when one Monetary Policy Committee member votes to cut interest rates, a majority of the nine members will agree about two meetings later. 23rd January 2024 · 3 mins read
