UK Economics Update Is the strong pound decade over? Sterling’s continued weakness even as interest rate expectations have moved back in its favour could reflect growing concerns over the fundamental health of the UK economy and hinder the Monetary... 28th January 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Widening mortgage spreads a sign of tightening lending criteria The increases in tracker rates announced by some mortgage lenders over the past few days add to other evidence that the recent improvement in the situation in financial markets has not prevented a... 28th January 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Widening mortgage spreads a sign of tightening lending criteria The increases in tracker rates announced by some mortgage lenders over the past few days add to other evidence that the recent improvement in the situation in financial markets has not prevented a... 28th January 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household bills add to squeeze on incomes Household bills could rise by over 8% this year, squeezing households’ spending power and contributing to a sharp slowdown in real consumer spending growth. It now looks unlikely that real household... 25th January 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household bills add to squeeze on incomes Household bills could rise by over 8% this year, squeezing households’ spending power and contributing to a sharp slowdown in real consumer spending growth. It now looks unlikely that real household... 25th January 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What are the prospects of a UK fiscal rescue package? The fiscal barriers to a US-style tax cutting package aimed at supporting the economy are not as obstructive they might at first look. Nonetheless, the potentially undesirable effects on interest... 24th January 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Equities catch up with economic reality The recent falls in the UK stockmarket have been part of a global phenomenon which has its roots in the downturn in the US economy and the potential knock-on effects on economies and financial markets... 22nd January 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Have interest rate expectations fallen too far? Expectations for UK interest rates have plummeted over the last few weeks. While we think that rates will eventually have to fall a long way, there must now be a risk that “hawkish” communications... 21st January 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Northern Rock another fiscal pinch The probable nationalisation of Northern Rock is unlikely to lead to a clear breach of the Chancellor’s fiscal rules, which apply over the whole economic cycle. Nonetheless, it would further underline... 17th January 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Falling stockmarket adds to consumer woes The recent fall in the UK stockmarket is unlikely to have a significant impact on households’ behaviour on its own. But added to the prospect of falling house prices and sluggish income growth, it is... 16th January 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Lower LIBOR will not prevent interest rates falling to 4% The rapid fall in interbank interest rates towards more normal levels is a welcome development but does not negate the need for further cuts in official interest rates. The growing emergence that the... 11th January 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Public sector not the key threat to pay growth The inflationary risk posed by the mounting unrest about the Government’s hard-line stance on public sector pay is fairly limited. The main risk to pay growth comes directly from the private sector... 10th January 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update UK rates still heading for 4% Today’s decision by the Monetary Policy Committee to leave interest rates on hold was purely a matter of timing. With the Committee apparently agreed that a significant monetary loosening is required... 10th January 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update UK rates still heading for 4% Today’s decision by the Monetary Policy Committee to leave interest rates on hold was purely a matter of timing. With the Committee apparently agreed that a significant monetary loosening is required... 10th January 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Falling pound won't do the MPC's job for it The recent sharp fall in the sterling trade-weighted exchange rate represents a loosening of monetary conditions in the UK economy. However, it is unlikely to prevent the Monetary Policy Committee... 7th January 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update January pay round should again pass without event The latest information on pay settlements suggests that workers are gaining the upper hand in pay bargaining. But while the risk of a substantial pick-up in pay growth is the biggest in a few years... 4th January 2008 · 1 min read
