UK Economics Update Sorry Mr Darling, but Britain may not be as safe as you think US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson spoke at length yesterday of the serious ongoing problems in the US housing, mortgage and credit markets and the drastic measures which are likely to be required... 14th March 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Budget Checklist This checklist is intended to help clients keep track of the important measures and numbers announced during the Chancellor’s Budget speech at 12.30pm and to provide some instant context. 12th March 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Budget Checklist This checklist is intended to help clients keep track of the important measures and numbers announced during the Chancellor’s Budget speech at 12.30pm and to provide some instant context. 12th March 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Bank's new auctions are no silver bullet The Bank of England’s announcement that it will inject more liquidity into the money markets is a welcome development that should help to bring interbank interest rates down to more normal levels. But... 11th March 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update US recession underlines downside risks to BoE/ECB rates Recent news on the US economy, most notably February’s sharp drop in non-farm payrolls, has left us even more pessimistic over the outlook for the US. We now forecast GDP growth of just 0.5% in 2008... 10th March 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update End of 100%+ LTVs to dent household good sales The popularity of mortgages with loan to value ratios (LTVS) of over 100% appears to have been a strong support to household goods sales over the past year or so. The decline in these products is... 10th March 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update End of 100%+ LTVs to dent household good sales The popularity of mortgages with loan to value ratios (LTVS) of over 100% appears to have been a strong support to household goods sales over the past year or so. The decline in these products is... 10th March 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Bond market abandons the fundamentals The recent collapse in shorter-dated UK government bond yields has no doubt reflected a flight to quality in the light of the ongoing uncertainties across global financial markets. Nonetheless, it has... 7th March 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update UK to slip down housing table in 2008 The latest annual European Housing Report published by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) echoed other evidence pointing to a general slowdown in the pace of activity and price... 7th March 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC hamstrung by inflation worries Today’s decision by the Monetary Policy Committee to leave interest rates unchanged supports the view that it will continue to loosen policy at a cautious pace while inflation concerns persist. But... 6th March 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC hamstrung by inflation worries Today’s decision by the Monetary Policy Committee to leave interest rates unchanged supports the view that it will continue to loosen policy at a cautious pace while inflation concerns persist. But... 6th March 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Rising LIBOR means that the MPC will have to work harder The recent renewed rise in interbank lending rates is an unwelcome development which means that the MPC will have to work harder to support economic activity. This supports our view that interest... 4th March 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Corporates face tighter credit conditions across the board Attention has focused on the fact that credit conditions are tightening for even non-subprime households. However, corporates are suffering too. Not only have banks tightened their lending conditions... 4th March 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Fall in bad debt unlikely to last Our measure of household bad debt fell in the final quarter of last year. However, bad debts are likely to start rising again before long as the rises in interest rates in 2006/07 start to take effect... 29th February 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Fall in bad debt unlikely to last Our measure of household bad debt fell in the final quarter of last year. However, bad debts are likely to start rising again before long as the rises in interest rates in 2006/07 start to take effect... 29th February 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC’s fears over inflation expectations appear overdone The MPC remains concerned that inflation expectations will fail to drop back later this year even as inflation itself falls. After all, this is exactly what happened last year. Nonetheless, there are... 21st February 2008 · 1 min read
