UK Economics Update Fall in bad debt unlikely to last Our measure of household bad debt fell in the final quarter of last year. However, bad debts are likely to start rising again before long as the rises in interest rates in 2006/07 start to take effect... 29th February 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Fall in bad debt unlikely to last Our measure of household bad debt fell in the final quarter of last year. However, bad debts are likely to start rising again before long as the rises in interest rates in 2006/07 start to take effect... 29th February 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC’s fears over inflation expectations appear overdone The MPC remains concerned that inflation expectations will fail to drop back later this year even as inflation itself falls. After all, this is exactly what happened last year. Nonetheless, there are... 21st February 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Migrant flows - the UK’s loss is Poland’s gain The reported increase in the number of Polish workers returning home from the UK will favour Poland’s growth prospects to the detriment of the UK’s. However, this is a long-term development that will... 21st February 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Pay growth remains well-behaved Today’s various releases brought tentative signs that the threat of a sharp pick-up in pay growth during the main start-of-year pay round is failing to materialise. Accordingly, this appears to be at... 20th February 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Chancellor to confess to breaking the rules As Northern Rock’s £100bn of liabilities have already been taken onto the Government’s books, nationalisation does not change anything from an accounting point of view. However, it does mean that the... 18th February 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Should the Budget lower stamp duty to revive the housing market? Speculation is mounting that the Chancellor might ultimately decide to follow the US lead and deliver a fiscal stimulus to the economy. With the housing market in the doldrums, and first time buyer... 15th February 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Should the Budget lower stamp duty to revive the housing market? Speculation is mounting that the Chancellor might ultimately decide to follow the US lead and deliver a fiscal stimulus to the economy. With the housing market in the doldrums, and first time buyer... 15th February 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Labour market not as strong as it looks The recent strength of employment growth suggests that the labour market is in rude health. However, with some of the more forward-looking measures of employment intentions having started to weaken... 15th February 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Labour market not as strong as it looks The recent strength of employment growth suggests that the labour market is in rude health. However, with some of the more forward-looking measures of employment intentions having started to weaken... 15th February 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Bond market's inflation fears will fade in time Bond markets appear to have become much more concerned about the inflation outlook in the UK than elsewhere. Nonetheless, with the UK on the cusp of a sharp slowdown in activity, it might not be too... 14th February 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Exporters' greed may prevent the pound from boosting growth Early signs that UK exporters are using the fall in the pound to boost their profit margins rather than their competitiveness could mean that the lower exchange rate does not lead to the rebalancing... 12th February 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Northern Rock another blow to the public finances The decision by National Statistics to take Northern Rock onto the Government’s books may not necessarily break the Government’s Sustainable Investment Rule. Nonetheless, it clearly deals another blow... 7th February 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Cautious loosening points to deeper downturn Today’s decision by the Monetary Policy Committee to cut interest rates by just 25 bps would seem to confirm that lingering inflation concerns will restrict policy loosening to a gradual pace over the... 7th February 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update PFI accounting change another fiscal blow According the Financial Times this morning, the adoption of international financial reporting standards (IFRS) in the public accounts from this April could lead to the inclusion of the Government’s... 5th February 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update King's re-appointment slightly hawkish, but safe Mervyn King’s re-appointment as Governor of the Bank of England for another five years is possibly a slightly hawkish development for the outlook for interest rates. Nonetheless, it will be seen as... 30th January 2008 · 1 min read
