UK Economics Update Higher inflation to hit consumers The deterioration in the inflation outlook is a double whammy for households. Not only will high inflation squeeze households’ real income growth, but it will also prevent interest rates from falling... 15th May 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Higher inflation to hit consumers The deterioration in the inflation outlook is a double whammy for households. Not only will high inflation squeeze households’ real income growth, but it will also prevent interest rates from falling... 15th May 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Slower rate cuts increase recession risks The recent dreadful news on inflation and the Bank of England’s hawkish Inflation Report suggest that interest rates will not fall as quickly this year as we had previously hoped – we have raised our... 15th May 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Slower rate cuts increase recession risks The recent dreadful news on inflation and the Bank of England’s hawkish Inflation Report suggest that interest rates will not fall as quickly this year as we had previously hoped – we have raised our... 15th May 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC's caution points to deeper downturn The MPC‘s inaction today confirms that inflation concerns are still hindering the Committee’s ability to respond to the ever-gloomier news on activity. The result will be a deeper and longer downturn... 8th May 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC's caution points to deeper downturn The MPC‘s inaction today confirms that inflation concerns are still hindering the Committee’s ability to respond to the ever-gloomier news on activity. The result will be a deeper and longer downturn... 8th May 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Holiday spending to take a break The foreign travel industry has recently sounded relatively upbeat about its ability to weather a consumer slowdown, arguing that people consider holidays a necessity, rather than luxury. However, a... 8th May 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Holiday spending to take a break The foreign travel industry has recently sounded relatively upbeat about its ability to weather a consumer slowdown, arguing that people consider holidays a necessity, rather than luxury. However, a... 8th May 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Discretionary spending to remain squeezed The share of household income eaten up by unavoidable or fixed outgoings has risen from 25% to 31% over the past 6 years. And there is little hope of this share falling back in the foreseeable future. 6th May 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Discretionary spending to remain squeezed The share of household income eaten up by unavoidable or fixed outgoings has risen from 25% to 31% over the past 6 years. And there is little hope of this share falling back in the foreseeable future. 6th May 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Equities’ resilience at odds with economic outlook The recent rebound in equity prices has left them looking somewhat detached from current expectations for the performance of the wider economy. And our feeling that even those expectations will prove... 30th April 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Growing letter threat darkens growth outlook Recent increases in oil and gas prices have increased the chances that consumer price inflation will breach the 3% ceiling which would trigger another letter from the Monetary Policy Committee to the... 28th April 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Lower pound will not prevent a manufacturing recession The sharp fall in the pound seen since last summer is unlikely to prevent the manufacturing sector from slipping into a recession this year. But it should mean that the downturn will be fairly shallow... 23rd April 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Have bond yields risen too far? The recent sharp rise in bond yields has brought them more closely into line with current expectations for the economy. However, our suspicion that those expectations will turn out to be too sanguine... 22nd April 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update UK house price forecast revisions Developments over the past quarter have highlighted the downside risks to our house price forecasts. Accordingly, we have cut them. We now think that house prices will fall by 8% this year, rather... 21st April 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update UK house price forecast revisions Developments over the past quarter have highlighted the downside risks to our house price forecasts. Accordingly, we have cut them. We now think that house prices will fall by 8% this year, rather... 21st April 2008 · 1 min read
