UK Economics Update Have bond yields risen too far? The recent sharp rise in bond yields has brought them more closely into line with current expectations for the economy. However, our suspicion that those expectations will turn out to be too sanguine... 22nd April 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update UK house price forecast revisions Developments over the past quarter have highlighted the downside risks to our house price forecasts. Accordingly, we have cut them. We now think that house prices will fall by 8% this year, rather... 21st April 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update UK house price forecast revisions Developments over the past quarter have highlighted the downside risks to our house price forecasts. Accordingly, we have cut them. We now think that house prices will fall by 8% this year, rather... 21st April 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update A welcome step, but still much more to do The details of the Bank of England’s latest measures to tackle the problems in the credit markets should ease some of the concerns surrounding the potential risks for taxpayers and possible... 21st April 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Bank of England initiative no substitute for further rate cuts Sentiment towards the financial sector has been helped this week by speculation of a new initiative from the Bank of England to free-up the money markets in the UK. However, the acid test is whether... 17th April 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Rate cuts are reducing aggregate mortgage payments The rise in mortgage payments facing borrowers coming off fixed rate mortgages has fuelled talk of monetary policy “pushing on a string”. In fact, the fall in payments of households with tracker or... 16th April 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Rate cuts are reducing aggregate mortgage payments The rise in mortgage payments facing borrowers coming off fixed rate mortgages has fuelled talk of monetary policy “pushing on a string”. In fact, the fall in payments of households with tracker or... 16th April 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Auction results suggest that Bank has more work to do The relatively subdued demand for today’s Bank of England auction of three month money may not mean that banks do not want extra cash, rather that they are unable to get their hands on it. Either way... 15th April 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update On the way to 3.5% The continued problems in the financial markets and the associated tightening of credit conditions in the end made today’s 25bps cut in interest rates to 5% almost a sure thing. We think that interest... 10th April 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update On the way to 3.5% The continued problems in the financial markets and the associated tightening of credit conditions in the end made today’s 25bps cut in interest rates to 5% almost a sure thing. We think that interest... 10th April 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Wide wage differentials won't stop migration falling This week’s House of Lords report has put immigration under the spotlight again. But the discussion about whether immigration should be capped may soon be irrelevant. Although we doubt that real wage... 4th April 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Wide wage differentials won't stop migration falling This week’s House of Lords report has put immigration under the spotlight again. But the discussion about whether immigration should be capped may soon be irrelevant. Although we doubt that real wage... 4th April 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update UK interest rates heading for 3.5% No, it’s not an April fool’s joke. With the UK economy facing very similar economic imbalances to those unwinding with such devastating effect in the US, we now expect GDP growth to average just 1% in... 1st April 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update UK interest rates heading for 3.5% No, it’s not an April fool’s joke. With the UK economy facing very similar economic imbalances to those unwinding with such devastating effect in the US, we now expect GDP growth to average just 1% in... 1st April 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Letter threat an unhelpful distraction for the MPC The threat of having to write a letter to the Chancellor explaining why inflation has moved more than 1% above its target could cause the MPC to focus on the near-term outlook for inflation just when... 26th March 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Clothing sales to suffer more heavily this time Today’s gloomy comments from clothing retailer Next about trading conditions over the coming year echo our view that clothing is unlikely to escape as lightly during this slowdown as it did in 2005. 19th March 2008 · 1 min read
