UK Economics Update Can consumers keep spending? If yesterday’s retail sales figures are to be believed, consumers intend to keep spending no matter what. But with the squeeze on their real incomes set to intensify, households would need to run... 20th June 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Bigger house price falls point to 50/50 chance of UK recession We now think that house prices will fall by about a third over the next 2 to 3 years, clearly increasing the chances of a recession in the UK economy to perhaps 50%. And with house prices still likely... 17th June 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Bigger house price falls point to 50/50 chance of UK recession We now think that house prices will fall by about a third over the next 2 to 3 years, clearly increasing the chances of a recession in the UK economy to perhaps 50%. And with house prices still likely... 17th June 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What would cause interest rates to rise? The recent shift in market expectations for UK interest rates has been nothing short of dramatic. As Chart 1 shows, having previously been pricing in sharp falls in interest rates, the short sterling... 10th June 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What would cause interest rates to rise? The recent shift in market expectations for UK interest rates has been nothing short of dramatic. As Chart 1 shows, having previously been pricing in sharp falls in interest rates, the short sterling... 10th June 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Yield curve’s recession warnings could be right this time History shows that an inverted gilt yield curve is not a foolproof predictor of recession. But the alarming weakening in the recent news on activity, together with the likelihood that inflation fears... 5th June 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC’s inaction points to deeper downturn The MPC‘s inaction on interest rates today confirms that inflation concerns are still hindering the Committee’s ability to respond to the ever-gloomier news on activity. The result will be a deeper... 5th June 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC’s inaction points to deeper downturn The MPC‘s inaction on interest rates today confirms that inflation concerns are still hindering the Committee’s ability to respond to the ever-gloomier news on activity. The result will be a deeper... 5th June 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household bad debt cycle may already have turned Our measure of household bad debt suggests that the bad debt cycle may already have turned. Even if it hasn’t, it will not be long before debt problems become far more widespread. This is another... 2nd June 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household bad debt cycle may already have turned Our measure of household bad debt suggests that the bad debt cycle may already have turned. Even if it hasn’t, it will not be long before debt problems become far more widespread. This is another... 2nd June 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update House price falls will dent consumer spending Yesterday’s news that house prices have now fallen by 7% on the Nationwide house price index has brought to the fore the disagreements about the impact of house price falls on consumer spending. We... 30th May 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update House price falls will dent consumer spending Yesterday’s news that house prices have now fallen by 7% on the Nationwide house price index has brought to the fore the disagreements about the impact of house price falls on consumer spending. We... 30th May 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Oil’s fiscal benefits dwarfed by threat of economic downturn The latest surge in the oil price to $130 per barrel (pb) looks set to have mixed implications for the public finances. On the positive side, the higher level of prices should provide the Government... 29th May 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Further signs that immigration has peaked Today’s upward revisions to the ONS estimates of short-term immigration have left the figures looking more plausible. However, the more timely data on the number of Eastern Europeans finding work in... 20th May 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Further signs that immigration has peaked Today’s upward revisions to the ONS estimates of short-term immigration have left the figures looking more plausible. However, the more timely data on the number of Eastern Europeans finding work in... 20th May 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Bond market’s inflation fears will fade…eventually The UK bond market is more concerned about inflation now than at any point since the inflation target was established in 1997 and such fears could persist for some time yet. But further ahead, a... 19th May 2008 · 1 min read
