UK Economics Update Household disposable income to post smallest rise since 1982 Although unemployment is now rising, there is perhaps some comfort in the fact that the sharp rise in unemployment in the early 1990s had a fairly limited impact on real household income growth... 17th July 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household disposable income to post smallest rise since 1982 Although unemployment is now rising, there is perhaps some comfort in the fact that the sharp rise in unemployment in the early 1990s had a fairly limited impact on real household income growth... 17th July 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Interest rate expectations have much further to fall The markets have once again started to anticipate cuts in UK interest rates. But if our expectations of the severity of the downturn in the economy prove even half right, rate expectations have a lot... 16th July 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update The labour market: now vs. the early 1990s The fall in employment that we expect over the next couple of years is only a fraction of the drop seen in the early 1990s. But with the workforce unlikely to contract as it did back then, the rises... 16th July 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update The labour market: now vs. the early 1990s The fall in employment that we expect over the next couple of years is only a fraction of the drop seen in the early 1990s. But with the workforce unlikely to contract as it did back then, the rises... 16th July 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update A rise in core inflation may not reflect underlying price pressures The ONS measure of core CPI inflation does not exclude all elements of food and energy prices in th CPI and is therefore likely to rise alongside energy and food prices. There is a danger, then, that... 14th July 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Strikes a limited threat to pay growth Industrial action by the likes of Shell and local government workers has fuelled fears of a return to the mass strikes and soaring pay of the 1970s. However, the labour market looks fundamentally... 10th July 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC can only watch as recession looms The MPC’s inaction today in the face of a torrent of dreadful news on the economy underlines the extent to which its hands are tied by the current strength of inflation pressures. There is little it... 10th July 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC can only watch as recession looms The MPC’s inaction today in the face of a torrent of dreadful news on the economy underlines the extent to which its hands are tied by the current strength of inflation pressures. There is little it... 10th July 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Equities come back to earth The steep falls in equity prices seen over recent weeks have brought the UK stockmarket back into line with consensus expectations for the economy. But with those expectations very likely to weaken... 8th July 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update UK heads towards recession We have been more concerned than most forecasters about the outlook for the UK economy and, in particular, the prospect of an abrupt unwinding of the various imbalances that have built up over the... 2nd July 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update UK heads towards recession We have been more concerned than most forecasters about the outlook for the UK economy and, in particular, the prospect of an abrupt unwinding of the various imbalances that have built up over the... 2nd July 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Wages growth in the 1970s and now The fact that wages growth has not yet responded to the rises in inflation seen over the last year or so is encouraging given that in the 1970s wages growth began to pick up just a few months after... 25th June 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Core inflation in the 1970s and now The current economic climate is increasingly being compared to the inflationary years of the 1970s and early 1980s. But a quick look at what actually happened back then suggests that the UK economy is... 24th June 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Pay fears to prove overdone… again Any signs that the rise in inflation is prompting a general pick-up in pay growth could trigger an interest rate hike from the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). So far, though, there have been no such... 23rd June 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Can consumers keep spending? If yesterday’s retail sales figures are to be believed, consumers intend to keep spending no matter what. But with the squeeze on their real incomes set to intensify, households would need to run... 20th June 2008 · 1 min read
