UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (21st Sep. 2023) 21st September 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Aug. 2023) August's public finances figures continued the recent run of better-than-expected news on the fiscal position. So while the Chancellor has ruled out tax cuts in the Autumn Statement on 22nd November... 21st September 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Aug. 2023) The unambiguously good CPI inflation figures for August increase the chances that the Bank of England decides to leave interest rates at 5.25% tomorrow, but we still think one final 25 basis point... 20th September 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Jul. 2023) The 0.5% m/m fall in real GDP in July could possibly mean that the mild recession we have been expecting has begun. Even so, with wage growth still uncomfortably strong, we suspect the Bank of England... 13th September 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Jul./Aug. 2023) The tightness of the labour market continued to ease in July. But the further rise in wage growth will only add to the Bank of England’s unease and supports our view that the Bank will raise interest... 12th September 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Credit (Jul. 2023) The drag on bank lending from higher interest rates grew further in July, particularly in the housing market. We think this effect will intensify as the Bank of England presses ahead with another 25... 30th August 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Flash PMIs (Aug. 2023) The fall in the activity PMI to below the boom-bust level of 50.0 in August supports our long-held view that the economy will enter a recession. And with weaker activity dampening price pressures, we... 23rd August 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Jul. 2023) July’s public finances figures continued the recent run of better-than-expected news on the fiscal position. But with interest rates still rising and a mild recession on its way, we continue to think... 22nd August 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Jul. 2023) The 1.2% m/m fall in retail sales volumes in July probably had more to do with the unusually wet weather than the impact of higher interest rates on consumer spending. But with the Bank of England’s... 18th August 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Jul. 2023) CPI inflation fell to a 17-month low of 6.8% in July, as the effects of the lower utility price cap kicked in. But with services price inflation rising from 7.2% to 7.4% (Bank of England forecast 7.3%... 16th August 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Jun./Jul. 2023) The fall in employment in the three months to June and further rise in the unemployment rate will be welcomed by the Bank of England as a sign labour market conditions are cooling. But with wage... 15th August 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Jun./Q2 2023) The 0.5% m/m rise in real GDP in June and 0.2% q/q increase in Q2 (CE, BoE, consensus 0.1% q/q) confirmed that a recession has so far been avoided. But with much of the drag from higher interest rates... 11th August 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (3rd Aug. 2023) 3rd August 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Credit (Jun. 2023) Higher interest rates continued to gradually feed through to weaker activity in bank lending in June, particularly in the housing market. We suspect this effect will intensify as the Bank of England... 31st July 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Jul. 2023) July’s flash activity PMIs suggest that the resilience in activity has eased further and that domestic inflationary pressures are starting to slow faster. That supports our view that the Bank of... 24th July 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Jun. 2023) June’s public finances figures revealed an unexpected undershoot of the OBR’s forecast for public borrowing, bringing some cheer for the government on a day when it has lost two by-elections. But with... 21st July 2023 · 3 mins read
