UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Credit (Mar. 2024) March’s money and credit figures provide further evidence that the drag from high interest rates is starting to fade, which supports our view that activity rebounded in Q1. And our forecast for... 30th April 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Apr. 2024) Although the unexpected rise in the composite activity PMI in April suggests the economy grew faster at the start of Q2, the more marked fall in the services output prices balance may make the Bank of... 23rd April 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Mar. 2024) March’s public finances figures show that public borrowing in 2023/24 came in £6.6bn higher than the OBR predicted only a month ago, casting further doubt on the ability of the government to unveil... 23rd April 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Mar. 2024) Although retail sales volumes remaining unchanged in March was worse than expected (consensus forecast +0.3% m/m, CE +0.5 % m/m), sales volumes still rose by 1.9% q/q in Q1 as a whole, bringing the... 19th April 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Mar. 2024) The smaller-than-expected fall in CPI inflation from 3.4% in February to 3.2% in March (BoE and consensus 3.1%, CE 3.0%) and drop in the core rate from 4.5% to 4.2% (consensus and CE 4.1%) raises the... 17th April 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Feb. 2024) The sharp fall in employment and the jump in the unemployment rate in February suggest that wage growth will continue to slow even though the pace of decline appears to have eased. As long as that’s... 16th April 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Bernanke Review of BoE Forecasting (Apr. 2024) Our initial impression of the changes to the Bank of England’s forecasting and communications recommended by Ben Bernanke is that they would go a long way to helping the Bank generate more accurate... 12th April 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Feb. 2024) The 0.1% m/m rise in GDP in February (consensus and CE +0.1%) and the upward revision to the gain in January from 0.2% m/m to 0.3% m/m all-but confirms the recession ended in Q4. But while we expect a... 12th April 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Credit (Feb. 2024) February’s money and credit figures show the dip in mortgage rates at the start of the year boosted mortgage approvals to a 17-month high. This is unlikely to continue in the near term. But if we’re... 2nd April 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Q4 2023 Final) The final Q4 2023 GDP release confirmed that the UK economy was in the mildest of mild technical recessions at the end of last year. But timely indicators suggest the economy probably exited recession... 28th March 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Feb. 2024) Unchanged retail sales volumes in February (CE forecast 0.0% m/m, consensus -0.4% m/m), as shoppers largely shrugged off the unusually wet weather, provided further evidence that a rebound in retail... 22nd March 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (21st Mar. 2024) The Bank of England sprung no surprises, leaving interest rates at 5.25% for the fifth time in a row and, despite no MPC members no longer voting to raise interest rates, it retained its relatively... 21st March 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Mar. 2024) While the composite activity PMI fell a touch in March, it still suggest that the UK economy has probably moved out of recession. This implies there is upside risk to our 2024 GDP growth forecast of 0... 21st March 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Feb. 2024) February’s disappointing public finances figures suggest that the OBR’s new 2023/24 borrowing forecast published in March’s Budget already looks too optimistic. But this may not prevent the government... 21st March 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Feb. 2024) The second bigger-than-expected fall in CPI inflation in as many months, from 4.0% in January to 3.4% in February probably won’t make the Bank of England sound any more dovish when it leaves interest... 20th March 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Jan. 2024) The news that the economy expanded by 0.2% m/m in January (consensus and CE forecast 0.2% m/m) suggests the UK economy may already have moved out of recession and implies there is some upside to our... 13th March 2024 · 3 mins read
