UK Economics Rapid Response

UK S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Jun. 2024)

June’s composite PMI suggests the economic recovery lost a bit of momentum towards the end of the second quarter. And after two stronger-than-expected inflation prints for April and May, the renewed...

21st June 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Retail Sales (May 2024)

The larger-than-expected increase in retail sales in May more than reversed the rain-driven weakness in April. And with inflation falling back to target, Bank Rate likely to be reduced soon and...

21st June 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Public Finances (May 2024)

May’s public finances figures delivered some better news on the fiscal position after the recent run of worse-than-expected outturns. However, they do little to reduce the fiscal constraints that will...

21st June 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

Bank of England Policy Announcement (20th Jun. 2024)

20th June 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Consumer Prices (May 2024)

The fall in CPI inflation from 2.3% in April to 2.0% in May (BoE 1.9%, consensus 2.0%, CE 1.8%) probably won’t be enough to persuade the Bank of England to cut interest rates from 5.25% tomorrow. And...

19th June 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK GDP (Apr. 2024)

The stagnation in GDP in April (consensus 0.0%, CE -0.1%) doesn’t mean the economic recovery has been extinguished, but it’s hardly great news for the Prime Minister three weeks ahead of the election.

12th June 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Labour Market (Apr. 2024)

The stickiness of wage growth in April will be a lingering concern for the Bank of England. But with employment falling sharply and the unemployment rate climbing, we think wage growth will soon be...

11th June 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Money & Lending (Apr. 2024)

While April’s money and lending figures suggest the recent rebound in the housing market is cooling and households reined in their spending in April, there was further evidence that the drag on...

31st May 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Retail Sales (Apr. 2024)

The 2.3% m/m fall in retail sales volumes in April was much bigger than our forecast for a 0.5% m/m fall and the consensus forecast for a 0.4% m/m decline as the unusually wet weather discouraging...

24th May 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (May 2024)

Today’s May flash PMI survey will have provided the Bank of England with some comfort after yesterday’s stronger-than-expected inflation data for April. Crucially, the further fall in the services...

23rd May 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Public Finances (Apr. 2024)

April’s public finances figures got the new 2024/25 fiscal year off to a shaky start and cast further doubt on the Chancellor’s ability to unveil big tax cuts at another pre-election fiscal event...

22nd May 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Consumer Prices (Apr. 2024)

In response to the smaller-than-expected fall in CPI inflation in April, we now think that the Bank of England will first cut interest rates in August rather than in June. And the data cast some doubt...

22nd May 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Labour Market (Mar. 2024)

While the further easing in regular private sector pay growth in March suggests that wage pressures faded a bit faster than the Bank of England expected, broader measures of wage growth are probably...

14th May 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK GDP (Mar. & Q1 2024)

The 0.6% q/q rise in GDP in Q1 confirmed that the recession ended at the start of this year and suggests the economy has been gathering momentum more quickly than we had anticipated. This raises the...

10th May 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

Bank of England Policy Announcement (May 2024)

While leaving interest rates at 5.25% today as widely expected, the Bank of England gave the impression that it is close to cutting interest rates and also hinted that rates may need to fall further...

9th May 2024 · 3 mins read