UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Public Finances (Jul. 2024)

July’s public finances figures continued the recent run of bad news on the fiscal position, with public borrowing on track to overshoot the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) 2024/25 forecast of...

21st August 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Retail Sales (Jul. 2024)

After a weather disrupted Q2, July’s 0.5% m/m rise in retail sales volumes (consensus forecast 0.6% m/m, CE forecast 0.5% m/m) was largely driven by two sectors and only partially reversed June’s 0.9%...

16th August 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK GDP (Jun. & Q2 2024)

While the economy flatlined in June, it still managed to grow by 0.6% q/q rise in GDP in Q2. That said, some of the rebound in activity in Q2 may have been due to catch-up growth following the...

15th August 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Consumer Prices (Jul. 2024)

The smaller-than-expected rise in CPI inflation from 2.0% in June to 2.2% in July (consensus forecast 2.3%, Capital Economics 2.1%, Bank of England 2.4%) and the sharp fall in services inflation from...

14th August 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Labour Market (Jun. 2024)

The further easing in wage growth will be welcomed by the Bank of England as a sign that labour market conditions are continuing to cool. This lends some support to our forecast that the Bank of...

13th August 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

Bank of England Policy Announcement (1st Aug. 2024)

1st August 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Money & Lending (Jun. 2024)

June’s money and lending data provided a bit more evidence that the drag from higher activity is starting to fade, which supports our view that the economic recovery may be a bit stronger than most...

29th July 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Jul. 2024)

July’s composite PMI suggests some of the recent rebound in activity this year may have been due to catch-up growth following the weakness of activity last year and GDP growth is easing towards a more...

24th July 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Retail Sales (Jun. 2024)

The unexpectedly large fall in retail sales in June reversed the jump in May, and suggests that rising real incomes and improving sentiment have so far failed to translate into a significant increase...

19th July 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Public Finances (Jun. 2024)

June’s disappointing public finances figures suggest that public borrowing is on track to come in a little higher than the OBR’s 2024/25 forecast of £87.2bn. Admittedly, the OBR may grant the...

19th July 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Labour Market (May 2024)

While the easing in wage growth in May was broadly in line with what the consensus and the Bank of England expected, it probably won’t offset the Bank’s concerns about the stickiness of services...

18th July 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Consumer Prices (Jun. 2024)

CPI inflation stayed in line with the 2.0% target in June – exactly where the Bank of England thought it would be (consensus and CE forecasts 1.9%) – but the composition of inflation remains a problem...

17th July 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK GDP (May 2024)

The stronger-than-expected 0.4% m/m rise in GDP in May (consensus forecast 0.2%, CE forecast 0.3%) will be welcomed by the new Chancellor after announcing earlier this week that she will make...

11th July 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

Exit Polls: Labour win would create some upside to our GDP, inflation and rate forecasts

The big shift in the political landscape that appears to be delivering a Labour government with a large majority is unlikely to lead to anything like as big a shift in the economic landscape. But at...

4th July 2024 · 4 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Money & Lending (May 2024)

May’s money and lending data provided a bit further evidence that the drag from higher activity is starting to fade. Together with our view that the Bank of England will cut interest rates from 5.25%...

1st July 2024 · 3 mins read