UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Oct. 2024) The fall in October’s composite flash PMI to an 11-month low suggests that real GDP growth, after what is shaping up to be a 0.2% q/q rise in Q3, continued to slow to a crawl at the start of Q4. This... 24th October 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Sep. 2024) While it is too late for September’s disappointing public finances figures to influence the amount of headroom the OBR will hand the Chancellor in the Budget on 30th October, they do highlight the... 22nd October 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Sep. 2024) September’s 0.3% m/m rise in retail sales volumes was stronger than expected (consensus forecast -0.3% m/m, CE -0.5% m/m) and suggests that while households may be concerned about possible tax rises... 18th October 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Sep. 2024) The surprisingly large drop in CPI inflation in September increases the chances that the Bank of England will speed up the pace of interest rate cuts by reducing rates by 25 basis points (bps) at both... 16th October 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Aug. 2024) The further fall in wage growth in August, together with signs that the labour market continued to loosen gradually, adds further support to the widespread expectation that the Bank of England will... 15th October 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Aug. 2024) The 0.2% m/m rise in GDP in August (consensus and Capital Economics 0.2%), which came on the back of the economy failing to grow at all in three of the previous four months, lends support to our view... 11th October 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Aug. 2024) August’s money and lending data provide further evidence that the gradual improvement in credit demand and supply in response to the falls in lending rates is supporting the economy. But the Bank of... 30th September 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP & National Accounts (Q2 2024) Q2 GDP growth of 0.5% q/q was a bit weaker than the previous estimate of 0.6% q/q, but the ONS also confirmed today that due to revisions to previous years’ data the economy is now 2.9% bigger than... 30th September 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Sep. 2024) The fall in September’s composite flash PMI is probably not a sign that the economy is on the cusp of another downturn, but instead is further evidence that real GDP growth has slowed towards a more... 23rd September 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Aug. 2024) August’s public finances figures continued the recent run of bad news on the fiscal position, with public borrowing on track to overshoot the OBR’s 2024/25 forecast of £87.2bn by £6.2bn. And although... 20th September 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Aug. 2024) The unexpected large rise in retail sales volumes in August came on the back of a 0.7% m/m increase in July (revised up from 0.5% m/m) and lends some support to our view that the recent stagnation in... 20th September 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (19 Sep. 2024) By leaving interest rates at 5.00% the Bank of England showed it is more like the ECB than the Fed and is cutting interest rates gradually rather than rapidly. We expect only one further 25bps cut... 19th September 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Aug. 2024) CPI inflation stayed at 2.2% in August (consensus & CE 2.2%, BoE 2.4%), but the rise in services inflation from 5.2% to 5.6% suggests the Bank of England will probably press the pause button on... 18th September 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Jul. 2024) The economy stagnated in July, but that doesn’t mean the UK is on the cusp of another recession and we still think the stickiness of inflation will keep the Bank on hold in September. 11th September 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Jul. 2024) The further easing in wage growth will be welcomed by the Bank of England as a sign that labour market conditions are continuing to cool. But we doubt this will be enough to prompt a back-to-back 25... 10th September 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Jul. 2024) July’s money and lending data provide further evidence that a steady improvement in the flow and demand of credit is supporting the economic recovery. That said, credit growth is unlikely to... 30th August 2024 · 3 mins read
