UK Economics Chart Pack Election to mark a turning point for the economy The anticipation of next week’s election delivering a substantial majority for the Conservative Party and leading to a Brexit deal has already triggered a turning point in the financial markets, with... 5th December 2019 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Economy could hit the government’s lead in the polls Although we estimate that the 0.2% q/q contraction in GDP in Q2 was followed by a 0.4% q/q rise in Q3, it is clear that the economy is spluttering rather than firing on all cylinders. We think that... 6th November 2019 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Avoiding a recession…for now While the 0.2% q/q decline in GDP in Q2 and the further falls in the IHS Markit/CIPS activity PMIs in August mean that there is a real risk of a recession, there are reasons to believe that GDP will... 5th September 2019 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Past the worst…for now While it will probably be confirmed later this week that the economy didn’t grow at all in Q2, July’s PMIs provide some support to our view that GDP will rise in Q3. Admittedly, both the manufacturing... 6th August 2019 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Heading for a weak Q2 While the economy managed a stronger-than-expected expansion in Q1, this might be as good as it gets this year. The economic news for Q2 so far has been undeniably weak. And if there is a further... 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Households to rein in spending in Q2 Some of the surge in consumer spending growth from 0.3% q/q in Q4 to 0.7% q/q in Q1 might have been due to households bringing forward purchases ahead of the original 29th March Brexit deadline. If so... 28th May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Households happy to spend Some of the surge in retail sales in Q1, which has pushed the three-month-on-three-month growth rate back up to the pace seen before the EU referendum in 2016, might have been due to households... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack The give and take of Brexit The uncertainty caused by Brexit is helping some parts of the economy and hindering others, but as a whole the economy isn’t doing too badly. An apparent surge in stockbuilding ahead of the original... 3rd April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Consumers unfazed With just eight days to go until Brexit and uncertainty higher than ever, it is reassuring that households increased their spending on the high street at a decent rate in February. Admittedly, the... 21st March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Weathering the storm With 23 days to go until the UK leaves the EU and no resolution in sight, we appear to have reached one of the most intense phases of Brexit uncertainty. However, the latest figures have been a bit... 6th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Brexit clouds the outlook for consumers The slump in retail sales volumes in December is not too worrying given that it seems to have largely reflected consumers bringing forward Christmas purchases in order to take advantage of ‘Black... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Households well placed to spend more It’s well known that the uncertainty caused by the Brexit bedlam probably contributed to GDP growth easing from 0.6% q/q in Q3 of last year to 0.3% or less in Q4. But it’s less appreciated that should... 7th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Groundwork for a strong 2019 in place A boost to retail sales in November from Black Friday saw sales record their largest monthly increase since May. Nonetheless, as this followed two consecutive monthly falls, the retail sector will end... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Heading for a weak Q4 Following the solid rise in GDP in the third quarter, the recent news has been disappointing. The business surveys suggest that output barely increased at all in November. And following a brief period... 5th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Economy starts Q4 with a whimper rather than a bang The large fall in the PMIs in October suggests that the economy slowed sharply at the start of Q4. Admittedly, some slowdown from rolling three-month GDP growth of 0.7% in July and August always... 5th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Real pay prospects improve High-street spending put in a strong performance over Q3 as a whole, posting another chunky 1%-plus gain. Admittedly, retail sales have not been a particularly good barometer of overall consumer... 18th October 2018 · 1 min read
