UK Economics Recovery becoming more tepid With a whopping 1.0 million people on average having been asked by the NHS App or Test & Trace system to self-isolate in July, the “pingdemic” is likely to have stifled the economic recovery in recent... 11th August 2021 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Inflation risks rising The risks to our forecast that CPI inflation will rise from 1.5% in April to a peak of 2.6% in November before dropping back in 2022 are increasingly on the upside. Rises in shipping costs and global... 10th June 2021 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Rapid and robust recovery underway We’ve been more optimistic than most about the economic outlook since it was announced in November that COVID-19 vaccines were effective. But now that the COVID-19 restrictions are being removed, it... 11th May 2021 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Unemployment rate may peak at only 6.0% The rapid rollout of COVID-19 vaccines, the reopening of schools and the staggered reopening of other sectors from mid-April should mean that the probable fall in GDP in January proves to be the low... 10th March 2021 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack A heavy January hangover for trade After having been boosted by stockbuilding ahead of the end of the Brexit transition period on 31st December, exports and imports were always going to fall in January. But the added drags of COVID-19... 3rd February 2021 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Vaccines will help the labour market heal COVID-19 vaccines have dramatically brightened the economic outlook. GDP probably still fell during the second lockdown in November, perhaps by up to 8% m/m, and the strict COVID-19 regional tier... 3rd December 2020 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Vaccines will help the labour market heal COVID-19 vaccines have dramatically brightened the economic outlook. GDP probably still fell during the second lockdown in November, perhaps by up to 8% m/m, and the strict COVID-19 regional tier... 3rd December 2020 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Lockdown and Brexit make for a bumpy Christmas The UK is facing up to the possibility of a festive period dominated by COVID-19 restrictions and Brexit. We think that the England-wide lockdown will shrink the economy by 8% m/m in November and that... 9th November 2020 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Lockdown and Brexit make for a bumpy Christmas The UK is facing up to the possibility of a festive period dominated by COVID-19 restrictions and Brexit. We think that the England-wide lockdown will shrink the economy by 8% m/m in November and that... 9th November 2020 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Entering a harder phase of the recovery Our Capital Economics BICS Indicator suggests that the rapid economic recovery has continued with some chunky gains in GDP in both July and August. (See Chart 1.) If so, then the economy may now be... 8th September 2020 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK bringing up the rear The large share of consumer-facing services in the UK economy, combined with a deeper and longer lockdown than most other developed economies meant that the UK was always going to be hit harder than... 5th August 2020 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Output only crawling back While the most restrictive period of the lockdown is behind us, the measures enforcing business closures and social distancing are only being eased very gradually. According to the ONS “Business... 4th June 2020 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Past the nadir, but normal a long way off While the latest data suggest that our estimate that GDP has fallen by an eyewatering 25% from peak to trough is in the right ballpark, it looks as though the most restrictive parts of the coronavirus... 5th May 2020 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Economic costs of lockdown will be huge It’s become clearer that the economic costs of the lockdown to contain the coronavirus will be huge. The plunge in the activity PMIs in March provide some tentative support to our view that GDP could... 2nd April 2020 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Coronavirus hit to the economy is coming The economy started the year on a strong note, but it is only a matter of time before it succumbs to the effects of the coronavirus. To reflect the weaker global backdrop and the likelihood that... 5th March 2020 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Activity no longer in rate-cutting territory Signs that the economy has turned a corner support our view that interest rates won’t be cut from 0.75% this year. After all, the activity PMIs are no longer in the territory where rates have been cut... 6th February 2020 · 8 mins read
