UK Economics Chart Pack Lockdown and Brexit make for a bumpy Christmas The UK is facing up to the possibility of a festive period dominated by COVID-19 restrictions and Brexit. We think that the England-wide lockdown will shrink the economy by 8% m/m in November and that... 9th November 2020 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Entering a harder phase of the recovery Our Capital Economics BICS Indicator suggests that the rapid economic recovery has continued with some chunky gains in GDP in both July and August. (See Chart 1.) If so, then the economy may now be... 8th September 2020 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK bringing up the rear The large share of consumer-facing services in the UK economy, combined with a deeper and longer lockdown than most other developed economies meant that the UK was always going to be hit harder than... 5th August 2020 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Output only crawling back While the most restrictive period of the lockdown is behind us, the measures enforcing business closures and social distancing are only being eased very gradually. According to the ONS “Business... 4th June 2020 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Past the nadir, but normal a long way off While the latest data suggest that our estimate that GDP has fallen by an eyewatering 25% from peak to trough is in the right ballpark, it looks as though the most restrictive parts of the coronavirus... 5th May 2020 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Economic costs of lockdown will be huge It’s become clearer that the economic costs of the lockdown to contain the coronavirus will be huge. The plunge in the activity PMIs in March provide some tentative support to our view that GDP could... 2nd April 2020 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Coronavirus hit to the economy is coming The economy started the year on a strong note, but it is only a matter of time before it succumbs to the effects of the coronavirus. To reflect the weaker global backdrop and the likelihood that... 5th March 2020 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Activity no longer in rate-cutting territory Signs that the economy has turned a corner support our view that interest rates won’t be cut from 0.75% this year. After all, the activity PMIs are no longer in the territory where rates have been cut... 6th February 2020 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Election to mark a turning point for the economy The anticipation of next week’s election delivering a substantial majority for the Conservative Party and leading to a Brexit deal has already triggered a turning point in the financial markets, with... 5th December 2019 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Economy could hit the government’s lead in the polls Although we estimate that the 0.2% q/q contraction in GDP in Q2 was followed by a 0.4% q/q rise in Q3, it is clear that the economy is spluttering rather than firing on all cylinders. We think that... 6th November 2019 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Avoiding a recession…for now While the 0.2% q/q decline in GDP in Q2 and the further falls in the IHS Markit/CIPS activity PMIs in August mean that there is a real risk of a recession, there are reasons to believe that GDP will... 5th September 2019 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Past the worst…for now While it will probably be confirmed later this week that the economy didn’t grow at all in Q2, July’s PMIs provide some support to our view that GDP will rise in Q3. Admittedly, both the manufacturing... 6th August 2019 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Heading for a weak Q2 While the economy managed a stronger-than-expected expansion in Q1, this might be as good as it gets this year. The economic news for Q2 so far has been undeniably weak. And if there is a further... 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Households to rein in spending in Q2 Some of the surge in consumer spending growth from 0.3% q/q in Q4 to 0.7% q/q in Q1 might have been due to households bringing forward purchases ahead of the original 29th March Brexit deadline. If so... 28th May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Households happy to spend Some of the surge in retail sales in Q1, which has pushed the three-month-on-three-month growth rate back up to the pace seen before the EU referendum in 2016, might have been due to households... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack The give and take of Brexit The uncertainty caused by Brexit is helping some parts of the economy and hindering others, but as a whole the economy isn’t doing too badly. An apparent surge in stockbuilding ahead of the original... 3rd April 2019 · 1 min read