UK Economics Chart Pack Policymakers step up a gear The last month has seen UK policymakers take more aggressive action to stop the recession from turning into a depression. November’s 150bps cut in interest rates to 3% left them at a 57-year low. And... 2nd December 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Retailers resort to price cuts as spending slows (Nov 08) It is shaping up to be a pretty awful Christmas for retailers. Admittedly, the recent interest rate cuts and falls in petrol and food prices will provide some relief for household incomes. What’s more... 20th November 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Worse than the early 1990s The 0.5% plunge in GDP in Q3 marked the start of the UK’s first recession in 17 years. And worse is to come. It is likely that the Government’s recapitalisation of the banks will not stop lending... 3rd November 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Recession underway (Oct 08) The official measure of retail sales is at least now moving in the same direction as the gloomy survey evidence. All of the main indicators therefore now show a sharp slowdown in high street demand... 23rd October 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Financial crisis plumbs new depths The economic news took a backseat over the last month as the financial crisis intensified. The interbank markets froze, a number of banks on both sides of the Atlantic failed and governments stepped... 6th October 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Treat the official retail sales data with caution (Sep 08) The surprising strength of the official retail sales data in recent months continues to contrast with the much more downbeat tone of the survey evidence and the trading reports from retailers... 18th September 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Pipeline price pressures may have peaked The sharp falls in oil, wholesale gas and agricultural commodity prices seen over the last month have dramatically improved the outlook for inflation further ahead. Admittedly, the recent hefty price... 2nd September 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Retail sales volatile, but levelling off (Aug 08) The official retail sales data remain unusually volatile. But at the very least, it appears that the underlying trend in sales has been flat since the beginning of this year. What’s more, the gloomier... 21st August 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK moves towards recession The slowdown in GDP growth to just 0.2% q/q in Q2 has come even before the full effects of the housing market downturn and the credit squeeze have been felt. As such, the UK appears to be heading... 31st July 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack High street spending looking unambiguously weak (Jul 08) Abstracting from the extreme volatility of the monthly data, the official retail sales figures appear to have been on a downward trend over the past few months. And there have been more concrete signs... 24th July 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Housing market starts to nose-dive The news on the housing market over the last month has simply been dire. The Nationwide recorded its eighth consecutive fall in house prices in June, leaving prices some 8% below their autumn peak... 1st July 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Consumers keep spending against all odds (Jun 08) The better weather no doubt boosted sales of clothing and seasonal ranges in May, but the 3.5% rise in the official measure of retail sales volumes looks pretty implausible. Although some of the... 19th June 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Inflation heading towards 4% The jump in CPI inflation from 2.5% to 3.0% in April has taken further near-term interest rate cuts off the agenda. Indeed, the MPC is unlikely to want to cut rates while inflation is above 3% and... 2nd June 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Official sales data still implausibly strong (May 08) The official retail sales data are still holding up fairly well. But we still think that the weaker anecdotal evidence is giving a truer picture of conditions on the high street. What’s more, the... 22nd May 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Slowdown starts to take hold It has become clearer over the last month that the economic slowdown well underway. The 0.4% rise in real GDP in the first quarter was the smallest in three years and reflected more modest activity in... 30th April 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Mixed messages about high street demand (Apr 08) The fairly robust picture given by the official retail sales data continues to contrast with the weaker tone of just about every other indicator of the strength of high street demand. What’s more... 24th April 2008 · 1 min read
